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Top stories

Outside Lands Complaints Mount as Golden Gate Park Awaits 60,000-Person Finale

Outside Lands Complaints Mount as Golden Gate Park Awaits 60,000-Person Finale

Authors

11

1 year ago

Lollapalooza Chile and Colombia’s Estéreo Picnic Reveal 2026 Lineups

Authors

4

11 months ago

Prediction markets for The Creator

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

701

🐲 Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2026?

Nov 2, 1:50 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

3.43%chance

134407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5303

189

Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?

Dec 11, 2:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.49%chance

213037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

707

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.52%chance

132287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2226

883

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM

25.25%chance

15869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

931

When will I, the creator of this market, personally purchase a humanoid robot for under $20,000 USD?

Apr 20, 6:45 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

21531

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

57

39

30

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will Aella (the original creator) have a baby by the end of 2027?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.55%chance

494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

98

Will the creators of Emesis Blue release their second TF2 film 'Murder Inc' by the end of 2026?

Feb 19, 6:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.67%chance

467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

74

Will I be the top creator on Manifold when the website shuts down?

Mar 7, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.96%chance

543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the person who slays me on the creator leaderboard have been an active user on the day I reached #1?

Dec 11, 6:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.83%chance

425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

Will MP (the original creator) consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

62.15%chance

13

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

98

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