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Top stories

Outside Lands Complaints Mount as Golden Gate Park Awaits 60,000-Person Finale

Outside Lands Complaints Mount as Golden Gate Park Awaits 60,000-Person Finale

Authors

11

9 months ago

Lollapalooza Chile and Colombia’s Estéreo Picnic Reveal 2026 Lineups

Authors

4

8 months ago

Prediction markets for The Creator

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

701

🐲 Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2026?

Nov 2, 1:50 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

3.43%chance

134407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5303

189

Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?

Dec 11, 2:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.49%chance

213037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

707

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.3%chance

132181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2332

878

🐲Who will Slay me on the creator leaderboard?

Dec 11, 3:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8961

OptionProbability

Other

Plasma Ballin

Tripping

Joshua

Tomek

Franklin Baldo

Conflux

eburk

Ammon Lam

Jack

memestiny

Isaac King

Snazzlepop

jim

Richard Hanania

CateHall

Niko

tjohnson314

Data Chef

BTE

Tumbles

Predictor

Bayesian

Jackson Polack

73

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM

25.25%chance

15869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

931

Will the Harry Potter universe outlive its creator?

Jan 15, 2:36 PMJan 15, 2:30 PM

74.81%chance

9292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

58

Will a custom podcast-creator be on the market by 2028? (details below)

Apr 11, 12:50 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

61.62%chance

7227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

267

180

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will the first account to surpass me on the Creator leaderboard be found to be a friend or alt of BTE within 12 months?

Feb 27, 6:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.95%chance

461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will I be the top creator on Manifold when the website shuts down?

Mar 7, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.96%chance

543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the person who slays me on the creator leaderboard have been an active user on the day I reached #1?

Dec 11, 6:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.83%chance

425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

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