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Top stories

Outside Lands Complaints Mount as Golden Gate Park Awaits 60,000-Person Finale

Outside Lands Complaints Mount as Golden Gate Park Awaits 60,000-Person Finale

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11

7 months ago

Lollapalooza Chile and Colombia’s Estéreo Picnic Reveal 2026 Lineups

Authors

4

7 months ago

Prediction markets for The Creator

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

701

🐲 Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2026?

Nov 2, 1:50 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

3.43%chance

134407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5303

189

Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?

Dec 11, 2:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.49%chance

213037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

707

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.3%chance

132181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2332

878

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM

25.25%chance

15869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

931

Will the Harry Potter universe outlive its creator?

Jan 15, 2:36 PMJan 15, 2:30 PM

74.81%chance

9292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

58

Will a custom podcast-creator be on the market by 2028? (details below)

Apr 11, 12:50 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

61.62%chance

7227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

267

180

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will the creators of Emesis Blue release their second TF2 film 'Murder Inc' by the end of 2026?

Feb 19, 6:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.67%chance

467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

74

Will the first account to surpass me on the Creator leaderboard be found to be a friend or alt of BTE within 12 months?

Feb 27, 6:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.95%chance

461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will I be the top creator on Manifold when the website shuts down?

Mar 7, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.96%chance

543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the person who slays me on the creator leaderboard have been an active user on the day I reached #1?

Dec 11, 6:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.83%chance

425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

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