The Defender News

A court issues a temporary injunction preventing Cook’s removal before 2026

Cook remains in her position as of the September rate-setting meeting

At least 3 current or former Fed Govs issue public statements defending Cook or Fed independence before 2026

Supreme Court ruling on the shadow docket

Cook gives a published interview (3 questions or more) before 2026

A Supreme Court ruling (regular or shadow docket) has at least 3 dissents

A higher court reverses a lower court (appeal, tro, etc)

A sitting GOP Senator criticizes the firing (more than just concerns)

Cook's replacement votes when regional Fed Presidents' terms are up for renewal (Feb 2026)

Trump will make up a nickname for Cook (announced via post or interview)

A plaintiff sues the Fed, asking court to enforce Cook's firing

Cook is barred from at least 1 FOMC meeting, AND her firing is ultimately deemed illegal

Cook is indicted for a felony related to her mortgages before litigation about her firing is completed

Senate Committee holds a hearing for nominee to Cook’s seat before 2026

Trump threatens to fire Powell "for cause" since he didn't remove Cook

Trump actually attempts to fire Powell before Cook firing litigation is complete

Cook resigns

Cook is charged with any crime by the Justice Department before 2026

Trump announces a nominee for Cook's seat before 2026

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries surpass 4.600% anytime before 10/1/25

Has 10,000+ articles

Contains egregious, easily verified falsehoods

Contains AI-generated articles

Accessible without login

Standalone website (not just a Twitter/X feature)

Content is under a free license

Contains a "Wikipedia" article

No entry for Mechahitler

Has an entry for Manifold Markets

Will actually be called "Grokipedia"

left-wingers perceive that it is biased against them

it is cringe

It's proven (within a week after release) that Musk has personally influenced at least one article (eg. manual correction, edits to the prompt for just that article, “de-biasing”, etc)

States that the race/ethnicity differences in IQ are mostly or entirely genetic

Larry Sanger inserts himself into it somehow

Uses Cloudflare to defend from scrapers

Released in 2026

Anyone can edit

Administered by a partially-human editorial board

Users will only be able to edit by prompting AI for changes

Articles written in 10+ languages

Has a way to see what specifically about an article was changed in a similar way to Wikipedia and other adjacent wikis

right-wingers perceive that it is biased against them

Grok will routinely check it when answering questions

Not released before 2030

Manifold likes it, according to a poll

Contains advertisements

Will be called Encyclopedia Galactica

has an official app on the Apple App Store

Uses a preexisting wiki engine or CMS

States that the death toll of the (Jewish) Holocaust was <3 million

Dismissal

Judgment in favor of defendant

Judgment in favor of plaintiff

NO

A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model

METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”

A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model

US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI

Juror names are not public record

The defense calls fewer witnesses than the prosecution

Jury sequestered for entire trial

Trial doesn't start until 2026

Court TV offers "Gavel-to-Gavel coverage"

Law & Crime offers "Gavel-to-Gavel coverage"

Luigi Mangione changes counsel during trial

Alternate juror is seated as a member of the Jury

The case will be heard as a bench trial

Brady evidence is withheld

AUSA sanctioned

Defense counsel sanctioned

A motion for recusal is made

Defendant held in contempt

Jury is sequestered just during deliberations

Yes - Contiguous United States

Yes - Pacific Territories

Yes - Hawaii and Alaska

NO

Gukesh Dommaraju

Fabiano Caruana

Other

Hikaru Nakamura

Wei Yi

NO

NO

Birmingham Stallions

Columbus Aviators

Dallas Renegades

DC Defenders

Houston Gamblers

Louisville Kings

Orlando Storm