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Prediction markets for The Economic Times

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

40.66%chance

348292667

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6468

3775

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.5%chance

401135725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3088

324

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

12437063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14097

6644

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

22.49%chance

714301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28031

7810

Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

22.04%chance

57501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17499

6557

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.76%chance

43511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12331

8645

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12045

8363

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

28.58%chance

42706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12128

9013

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.39%chance

41059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11043

8814

By What time will Socialism become the predominant economic system?

Dec 16, 7:44 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

281059

OptionProbability

2100

Capitalism will be replaced By a different system that is not socialism

2050

Socialism will never become the prominent economic system

Far Future

Near Future

75

65

57

51

41

23

Will any AI model released before 2028 reach an Epoch general ECI of at least 200?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.83%chance

3350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6347

4665

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