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Prediction markets for The Economic Times

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

54.07%chance

340280777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5056

5043

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.2%chance

348106080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2121

472

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

9.29%chance

7639546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31241

3201

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.62%chance

11836884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14050

6693

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.32%chance

2818339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2112

474

During Trump's presidency, which types of unemployment will reach new highs?

Nov 9, 7:59 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

1111688

OptionProbability

U-1

U-2

U-4

U-5

U-3

27

24

24

24

15

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1110587

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

70

52

39

30

19

7

Next Fed chair to have a degree in economics?

Apr 18, 12:20 AMApr 1, 10:59 PM

3.97%chance

3010038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2907

34

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.03%chance

722785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1725

976

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

By What time will Socialism become the predominant economic system?

Dec 16, 7:44 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

281059

OptionProbability

2100

Capitalism will be replaced By a different system that is not socialism

2050

Socialism will never become the prominent economic system

Far Future

Near Future

75

65

57

51

41

23

Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?

Mar 17, 6:52 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

94%chance

1329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5329

4976

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