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Prediction markets for The Economist
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
26.1%chance
455323493
OptionVotes
2699
2492
Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?
Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
38.22%chance
314818
OptionVotes
1271
787
Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?
Mar 28, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.48%chance
204157
OptionVotes
2251
444
Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?
Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
19.52%chance
292067
OptionVotes
1836
655
Which Party will the Economist endorse in the next UK General Election?
Apr 1, 11:44 AMJul 30, 10:59 PM
91414
OptionProbability
25
18
16
12
12
11
5
2
Will Michele Boldrin (Italian economist & professor) partecipate at the next elections in Italy?
Apr 15, 5:50 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM
27.33%chance
12889
OptionVotes
1046
816
What will Russia's democracy index be in 2026, as per the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy report?
Nov 26, 6:26 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM
20.62%chance
5242
OptionProbability
480
278
If Vladimir Putin is not in power in Russia, what will Russia's democracy index be in 2026, as per the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy report?
Nov 27, 7:19 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM
34.53%chance
6165
OptionProbability
334
319
Will any top economist author or coauthor a paper on the journal Seeds of Science?
Aug 6, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.84%chance
483
OptionVotes
207
86
Which country will be the first to go over 5 on the Economist's Democracy index
Mar 29, 10:59 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM
452
OptionProbability
43
31
27
Will any of the top 10 countries in The Economist’s 2025 Democracy Index have a directly elected head of government?
Mar 22, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.06%chance
215
OptionVotes
115
87