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Top stories

Scottish MSP Graham Simpson Jumps to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK

Scottish MSP Graham Simpson Jumps to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK

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1 year ago

Trump Approval Ticks Up Toward 50% as Democrats Hold Generic Ballot Lead

Trump Approval Ticks Up Toward 50% as Democrats Hold Generic Ballot Lead

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1 year ago

Prediction markets for The Economist

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.46%chance

630671922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5352

4554

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

8010689

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

60

31

8

1

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

44.34%chance

344924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

892

Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?

Mar 28, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.52%chance

214753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2771

361

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.62%chance

292141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1762

673

Will Michele Boldrin (Italian economist & professor) partecipate at the next elections in Italy?

Apr 15, 5:50 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM

29.49%chance

161983

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

752

How will Iran be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 4, 9:27 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

91835

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

71

18

6

4

Which country will be selected as "Country of the Year" by The Economist in 2026?

Dec 23, 3:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10732

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Venezuela

Argentina

Taiwan

China

India

Canada

Brazil

United Kingdom

Denmark

34

16

12

8

8

8

7

6

4

4

What would be Burkina Faso classified as in The Economist Democracy Index for 2026?

Jan 25, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1229

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

85

6

5

4

If this person is leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Economist endorse Labour?

Apr 30, 10:32 PMMay 1, 11:59 PM

7200

OptionProbability

Wes Streeting

Keir Starmer

Al Carns

Ed Miliband

Andy Burnham

Angela Rayner

35

31

31

30

29

28

If this person is leader of the Lib Dems going into the next UK general election, will the Economist endorse Lib Dems?

May 1, 6:29 PMJun 15, 6:28 PM

167

OptionProbability

Ed Davey

Daisy Cooper

Layla Moran

Josh Babarinde

30

30

30

26

If this person is leader of the Conservatives going into the next UK general election, will the Economist endorse Cons?

Apr 30, 10:34 PMMay 1, 11:59 PM

265

OptionProbability

Claire Coutinho

Katie Lam

Kemi Badenoch

James Cleverly

34

33

31

31

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