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Prediction markets for The Exploration Company

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.28%chance

264385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3328

300

🌖 What country will be the first to build a nuclear reactor on the Moon?

Aug 5, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:49 AM

173011

OptionProbability

None by 2035

China 🇨🇳

USA 🇺🇸

EU - French reactor

Other

EU - UK reactor

Russia 🇷🇺

61

12

12

5

5

4

2

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.03%chance

302990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

905

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

72.9%chance

431906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

856

SpaceX & Tesla Merger before 2028

May 28, 12:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

251363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

624

414

Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?

May 8, 5:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.91%chance

16778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

341

29

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

26%chance

23758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

907

Will Brazil implement a four-day work week before 2030?

Oct 12, 3:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

5.57%chance

10577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

85

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

744

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.28%chance

6213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

Will the OceanGate cofounder's other company explore Dean's Blue Hole and resurface without injuring anyone by EOY 2026?

Jun 20, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.86%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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