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Prediction markets for The Exploration Company

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

380

🌖 What country will be the first to build a nuclear reactor on the Moon?

Aug 5, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:49 AM

162986

OptionProbability

None by 2035

China 🇨🇳

USA 🇺🇸

EU - French reactor

Other

EU - UK reactor

Russia 🇷🇺

59

13

13

5

5

4

2

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.72%chance

192798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2886

346

Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026?

Jun 25, 9:32 PMJun 1, 1:59 PM

40.94%chance

81714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

87

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78%chance

421556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1542

776

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

23.65%chance

21688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

872

Will Brazil implement a four-day work week before 2030?

Oct 12, 3:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

5.57%chance

10577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

85

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

744

Will a Chinese Airliner Break the Airbus/Boeing Duopoly Before 2030?

Dec 26, 8:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.74%chance

7110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

31

Will Astra's Rocket 4 Launch in 2026?

Jan 23, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.87%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

93

Will the OceanGate cofounder's other company explore Dean's Blue Hole and resurface without injuring anyone by EOY 2026?

Jun 20, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.86%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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