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Prediction markets for The Exploration Company

Will OpenAI release an agent priced at $10k per month or above in 2025

Mar 5, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.04%chance

8022760

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4874

205

Will Intel spin-off its foundry business by 2026?

Jan 18, 11:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.64%chance

53630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4532

221

Ubisoft bankrupt, acquired, or ceased before 2026?

Nov 18, 11:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.39%chance

222074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1913

137

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.58%chance

131631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1965

509

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71.67%chance

411256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1220

860

Will base launch token this year

Nov 28, 9:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.65%chance

41060

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

50.65%chance

7826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

987

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

23.65%chance

21688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

872

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

744

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.28%chance

6213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

Will the OceanGate cofounder's other company explore Dean's Blue Hole and resurface without injuring anyone by EOY 2026?

Jun 20, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.86%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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