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Prediction markets for The Exploration Company

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3638

276

🌖 What country will be the first to build a nuclear reactor on the Moon?

Aug 5, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:49 AM

173011

OptionProbability

None by 2035

China 🇨🇳

USA 🇺🇸

EU - French reactor

Other

EU - UK reactor

Russia 🇷🇺

61

12

12

5

5

4

2

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.72%chance

192798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2886

346

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71.67%chance

421856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

876

Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above its IPO price on July 31st?

Jun 8, 9:21 AMJul 31, 8:01 PM

82.87%chance

291530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

45

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.35%chance

211414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

789

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

26%chance

23758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

907

Will an AI Lab in China build AGI before 2030?

Feb 10, 7:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.99%chance

8649

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

109

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

744

Will Corning or Murata produced QS separators make their way into a sample cell in 2026?

Dec 21, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.38%chance

8322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

276

36

Will the OceanGate cofounder's other company explore Dean's Blue Hole and resurface without injuring anyone by EOY 2026?

Jun 20, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.86%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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