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Prediction markets for The Exploration Company

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.22%chance

152431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2680

373

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

16.12%chance

112352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2281

438

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78%chance

421556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1542

776

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026?

Jun 25, 9:32 PMJun 1, 1:59 PM

83%chance

51355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

231

47

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

23.65%chance

21688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

872

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

744

Will a Chinese Airliner Break the Airbus/Boeing Duopoly Before 2030?

Dec 26, 8:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.74%chance

7110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

31

Will a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations

Feb 3, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.09%chance

160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

63

Will the OceanGate cofounder's other company explore Dean's Blue Hole and resurface without injuring anyone by EOY 2026?

Jun 20, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.86%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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