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Prediction markets for The Fly

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.15%chance

6212367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

903

Will the SuperHeavy Booster (re-) fly without refurbishment by EOY 2026?

Jan 20, 1:03 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

23.83%chance

184737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1788

559

Does extraterrestrial life at least as complex as a fly exist anywhere in the solar system?

Dec 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

5.47%chance

514032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2069

857

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

38.48%chance

373458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

845

Will the PRC flag fly on the Moon before it flies on Taiwan?

Dec 11, 7:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

80.25%chance

291896

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

823

Will "On the fly modification and generation of in game environment during play using an AI system" be possible in 2030?

Apr 1, 7:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

90.3%chance

371808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1911

810

Will 0.1% of the US population have traveled in a flying car by 2050?

Apr 16, 3:00 AMJan 1, 1:15 PM

46.35%chance

171548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

872

Will it be substantially more expensive to fly in the USA, in 2028?

Aug 22, 12:47 PMAug 2, 6:59 AM

21.27%chance

251086

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

856

Will Elon officially announce a flying car by the end of 2026?

Nov 26, 8:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.05%chance

31941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

880

Will Boeing have a Flying Car in use on at least one commercial route by the end of 2030?

Apr 18, 8:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.52%chance

14805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1316

867

Will Boeing have a Flying Car in use on at least one commercial route by the end of 2033?

Apr 18, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.4%chance

14555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

910

Will you be able to pay to recreationally fly around in the gases of Jupiter before 2100?

Sep 7, 11:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.2%chance

17428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

932

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