The General Partnership News

2026 California Insurance Commissioner election

May 25, 3:42 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

61455

OptionProbability

Jane Kim

Ben Allen

Steven Bradford

Patrick Wolf

Stacy Korsgaden

Robert Howell

Other

Will Emily and I get a divorce by end of 2040?

Oct 10, 4:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.32%chance

201355

OptionVotes

YES

1346

775

Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?

Apr 15, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.3%chance

231152

OptionVotes

YES

510

Will the Trump administration sign a bilateral agreement to acquire land in Greenland by the end of 2026?

Feb 2, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.35%chance

9417

OptionVotes

YES

421

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

Next General Nintendo Direct Prop Market (Add answers)

Jul 13, 10:36 PMAug 12, 11:59 PM

5125

OptionProbability

Ocarina of Time release date announced

Happens in September

Happens on or after September 14, 2026 (UTC)

Animal Crossing mainline sequel reveal

Pikmin 5 reveal

Fire Emblem remakes of Genealogy of the Holy War announcement

Luigi's Mansion 4 reveal

Something I subjectively would describe as "Super Cool"

New 3D Mario game reveal

Kid Icarus port or sequel announcement

New hardware accessory (e.g., Switch 2 dock/controller) reveal

New IP developed by Nintendo revealed

Star Fox new game announcement

F-Zero new game announcement

Will Elon Musk say the word “misanthropic” again before the end of 2027?

May 6, 6:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.37%chance

9107

OptionVotes

YES

129

Labour rules out Te Pati Maori for 2026 nz election?

Dec 23, 6:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.76%chance

268

OptionVotes

YES

154

Who Walmart buys eBay on 2029 only

Feb 10, 2:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

111

The General Partnership News

Prediction markets for The General Partnership

Prediction markets for The General Partnership

Prediction markets for The General Partnership

2026 California Insurance Commissioner election

Will Emily and I get a divorce by end of 2040?

Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?

Will the Trump administration sign a bilateral agreement to acquire land in Greenland by the end of 2026?

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

Next General Nintendo Direct Prop Market (Add answers)

Will Elon Musk say the word “misanthropic” again before the end of 2027?

Labour rules out Te Pati Maori for 2026 nz election?

Who Walmart buys eBay on 2029 only

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