OptionProbability
Jane Kim
Ben Allen
Steven Bradford
Patrick Wolf
Stacy Korsgaden
Robert Howell
Other
49
44
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1346
775
490
20
Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work
Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)
Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks
Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues
Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery
55
47
46
45
169
59
129
77
154
87
111
90
