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The House News

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

89103889

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

79

21

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69101750

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Other

Christine Pelosi

Bruce Lou

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

64

20

14

1

1

1

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

May 23, 1:11 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

75.07%chance

14523253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1735

576

Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Nov 7, 6:10 PMDec 1, 8:59 PM

22.88%chance

5611953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

545

Will US Housing Prices Drop by 20%+ by the End of 2030?

Jun 14, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.07%chance

2711096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2699

371

Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?

Jan 22, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.66%chance

167337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14113

7510

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.33%chance

367280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2625

381

Will an effective accelerationist (e/acc) be in an important AI policy role for the White House before the end of 2025?

Jul 2, 11:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.05%chance

144432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

922

Will Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives during his second term?

Nov 6, 6:44 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

53%chance

274289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will Apple have a top tier AI tool developed in house and available to consumers by the of 2025?

Nov 20, 4:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.91%chance

221749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1661

616

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

53.96%chance

151698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10382

9514

Will Trump be impeached by the House again in his 2nd term?

Nov 24, 5:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.85%chance

361033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

986

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