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Prediction markets for The House

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1631433400

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

Saikat Chakrabarti

London Breed

Other

61

38

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

183295392

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

88

12

Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Nov 7, 6:10 PMDec 1, 8:59 PM

44%chance

295214988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

887

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

May 23, 1:11 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

54.78%chance

221114189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

909

Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026?

Nov 15, 1:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.06%chance

7765070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4865

206

Will US Housing Prices Drop by 20%+ by the End of 2030?

Jun 14, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15%chance

3011263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.47%chance

387402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2643

378

Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?

Feb 11, 3:22 PMNov 4, 12:00 AM

35%chance

297079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Will the White House Ballroom really be a ballroom?

Oct 26, 6:21 PMJan 20, 5:47 PM

535682

OptionProbability

No, less than half ballroom etc.

Yes, more than half ballroom etc

58

42

Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected to the House in 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.63%chance

123814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

817

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

54.42%chance

171802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10297

9614

Will any additional major section of the White House be demolished in 2026?

Oct 24, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.14%chance

13614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

49

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