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Prediction markets for The House Fund

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

58.08%chance

9013035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

850

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.14%chance

136421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7399

2491

Will the US Constitution be amended to revoke Birthright Citizenship before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.64%chance

252006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

962

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Musk's role at DOGE ruled unconstitutional

Mar 14, 3:00 AMJul 1, 11:59 AM

13.5%chance

241253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

40

The ballroom at the White House being canceled due to misuse of funds for a extravagant useless room or etc

Dec 30, 11:33 PMFeb 7, 6:08 PM

27.46%chance

211084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

62

London Bridge literally falls down in the next 5 years (like the rhyme)

Jan 17, 4:25 AMJan 17, 4:24 AM

5.12%chance

12959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

431

23

Will TfL's planned Bakerloo Line extension to Lewisham go ahead?

Mar 11, 8:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54.03%chance

5267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

148

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.57%chance

2135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

29.01%chance

669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

153

Will Partido Novo gain at least 2 seats in the 2026 Brazilian national legislative elections to the Chamber of Deputies?

Mar 24, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.04%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

What will happen to the Marineland Beluga whales?

Oct 14, 1:41 PMOct 15, 1:29 PM

215

OptionProbability

Euthanized

Moved to a sanctuary

Introduced to the wild

Sold/given to a park

38

26

18

18

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