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Prediction markets for The House Fund

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.14%chance

136421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7399

2491

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

474052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8923

4537

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.66%chance

43645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4212

237

Will James Fishback win the Florida Republican Primary?

Mar 23, 12:27 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

7.54%chance

122543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

350

29

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Musk's role at DOGE ruled unconstitutional

Mar 14, 3:00 AMJul 1, 11:59 AM

5.09%chance

261494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

432

23

Will Democrats begin to call the $1.776 billion dollar slush fund the “Epstein Loyalty Fund” by the midterms election?

May 21, 12:51 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

22.87%chance

101468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

545

Will Congress pass legislation explicitly authorizing or funding the White House Ballroom project by Jan 3, 2027?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

15.34%chance

111409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2349

426

Trump will announce tariffs on a European country to pay towards the Iran war by end of Jun 2026

Apr 1, 4:36 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8.83%chance

20685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

321

31

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?

May 13, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

5100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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