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Prediction markets for The House Fund

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.43%chance

509368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13135

3475

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.83%chance

146935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7913

2338

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.1%chance

63775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2722

367

Will the US Constitution be amended to revoke Birthright Citizenship before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.13%chance

262011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

967

923

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Will Congress pass legislation explicitly authorizing or funding the White House Ballroom project by Jan 3, 2027?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

13.3%chance

131724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2553

392

London Bridge literally falls down in the next 5 years (like the rhyme)

Jan 17, 4:25 AMJan 17, 4:24 AM

5.12%chance

12959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

431

23

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will TfL's planned DLR Extension to Thamesmead go ahead?

Mar 11, 8:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75.59%chance

4172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

73

Will the US Government create a public-private partnership with OpenAI by 2028?

May 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.83%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

29.01%chance

669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

153

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