The Initiative News

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2025? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:17 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

24.91%chance

10618032

OptionVotes

YES

3271

1678

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

52.59%chance

767314

OptionVotes

YES

2494

1805

Will Brazil join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) until the end of 2027?

Apr 11, 2:47 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

40.42%chance

161727

OptionVotes

YES

1033

936

(Before 2030) How will China actually initiate the annexation of Taiwan?

Dec 10, 4:17 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

14587

OptionProbability

None (no direct annexation attempt)

Direct hostilities -- Surprise large scale military action (blockade, direct attack, etc.)

Other

An small incident (whether accidental or planned) snowballs into a full scale conflict

Formal ultimatum -- China will formally request for talks to discuss annexation ("or else")

Will NASA use atomic clocks on the moon as part of their initial timekeeping method?

Apr 22, 1:51 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73.54%chance

18563

OptionVotes

YES

1145

915

Will "Our Neighborhood Voices" qualify a local control zoning initiative for the 2026 California ballot?

Feb 26, 12:55 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

30.77%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

1500

667

Conditional on it being developed earlier, will an AGI be initiated into the Roman Catholic Church before 2100?

Oct 7, 4:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.36%chance

9416

OptionVotes

YES

216

144

Will Switzerland vote on a federal referendum or popular initiative on the legalisation of THC by 2029?

Jun 29, 11:15 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

50%chance

7295

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

1875

1696

Will Tsukihime -The other side of red garden- be available in English on its initial release?

Feb 14, 1:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.91%chance

4132

OptionVotes

YES

Will Moistcritikal / penguinz0 's lawsuit against the US Immigration Dept result in overturning their initial rulings?

May 4, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.18%chance

774

OptionVotes

YES

172

Will the next French aircraft carrier be (initially) named after a woman?

Apr 9, 12:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

53%chance

468

OptionVotes

YES

174

146

The Initiative News

Prediction markets for The Initiative

Prediction markets for The Initiative

Prediction markets for The Initiative

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2025? (1000 mana subsidy)

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Will Brazil join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) until the end of 2027?

(Before 2030) How will China actually initiate the annexation of Taiwan?

Will NASA use atomic clocks on the moon as part of their initial timekeeping method?

Will "Our Neighborhood Voices" qualify a local control zoning initiative for the 2026 California ballot?

Conditional on it being developed earlier, will an AGI be initiated into the Roman Catholic Church before 2100?

Will Switzerland vote on a federal referendum or popular initiative on the legalisation of THC by 2029?

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

Will Tsukihime -The other side of red garden- be available in English on its initial release?

Will Moistcritikal / penguinz0 's lawsuit against the US Immigration Dept result in overturning their initial rulings?

Will the next French aircraft carrier be (initially) named after a woman?

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