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Prediction markets for The Institutions

Will the US institute a national ban on abortion anytime before 2035?

May 8, 11:44 PMMay 16, 3:59 AM

11.35%chance

212024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

992

Will the United States re-institute the draft by 2030? 🪖🇺🇸

Mar 4, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.81%chance

161494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

630

What will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute's revenue be in 2025?

Apr 7, 12:57 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

31071

OptionProbability

Above $1,000,000

Above $2,000,000

Above $3,500,000

Above $5,000,000

Above $7,500,000

Above $10,000,000

Above $15,000,000

Above $20,000,000

Above $35,000,000

99

99

75

34

5

3

3

2

2

Will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute exist in 2030?

Apr 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.86%chance

161059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1454

850

The United States federal gov will institute a Selective Service Draft by End of 2026

Mar 14, 7:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.37%chance

16630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

468

21

What company or institution will win the XTX AIMO Prize?

Dec 26, 4:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11246

OptionProbability

Open AI

Google Deepmind

Other

Anthropic

Meta

UC Berkeley

42

35

13

5

3

2

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Other

54

23

23

Will the Smithsonian Institute sell, destroy, or otherwise deaccession parts of its collection by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 9:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4160

OptionProbability

1 or more item deaccessioned

10 or more items deaccessioned

100 or more items deaccessioned

5 or more items specifically destroyed

1 or more item deaccessioned specifically for "improper ideology"

69

50

36

23

17

Will New Hampshire remain the freest state in the United States, according to the Cato Institute, from 2023 to 2033?

May 31, 12:59 AMJan 1, 8:00 PM

43%chance

8138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

151

145

Will the Qualia Research Institute (QRI) make a blogpost on DOPR/DOBU/DOAM/2,5-DMA by EOY2029?

Nov 12, 12:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

What will the dollar price of a full-body cryopreservation for a lifetime member of the Cryonics Institute be in 2040?

Mar 13, 5:50 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

81.82%chance

213

OptionProbability

YES

NO

271

267

By 2030, will Tumbles be satisfied with the institutional response to any MAGA officials?

Feb 12, 7:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.95%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

100

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