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Prediction markets for The Institutions

Will the US institute a national ban on abortion anytime before 2035?

May 8, 11:44 PMMay 16, 3:59 AM

17.29%chance

211674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

642

Will the United States re-institute the draft by 2030? 🪖🇺🇸

Mar 4, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.81%chance

161494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

630

Will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute exist in 2030?

Apr 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.86%chance

161059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1454

850

The United States federal gov will institute a Selective Service Draft by End of 2026

Mar 14, 7:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.65%chance

12340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

252

40

Which of the Western countries will first implement a social credit system or a similar digital gulag institution?

Sep 1, 2:57 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

7273

OptionProbability

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

Australia

Denmark

Austria

Belgium

Czech Republic

Estonia

France

Greece

Iceland

Italy

Latvia

Luxembourg

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Spain

Sweden

None by 2100

Germany

Switzerland

9

8

7

6

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

What company or institution will win the XTX AIMO Prize?

Dec 26, 4:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11246

OptionProbability

Open AI

Google Deepmind

Other

Anthropic

Meta

UC Berkeley

42

35

13

5

3

2

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Other

54

23

23

Will the Smithsonian Institute sell, destroy, or otherwise deaccession parts of its collection by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 9:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4160

OptionProbability

1 or more item deaccessioned

10 or more items deaccessioned

100 or more items deaccessioned

5 or more items specifically destroyed

1 or more item deaccessioned specifically for "improper ideology"

69

50

36

23

17

Will the U.S. Institute of Peace exist at the end of Trump II?

May 26, 9:36 PMJan 20, 10:30 PM

49.73%chance

4104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

Will New Hampshire remain the freest state in the United States, according to the Cato Institute, from 2023 to 2033?

May 31, 12:59 AMJan 1, 8:00 PM

33.18%chance

660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

127

Will the Qualia Research Institute (QRI) make a blogpost on DOPR/DOBU/DOAM/2,5-DMA by EOY2029?

Nov 12, 12:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

What will the dollar price of a full-body cryopreservation for a lifetime member of the Cryonics Institute be in 2040?

Mar 13, 5:50 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

81.82%chance

213

OptionProbability

YES

NO

271

267

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