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Prediction markets for The Nation

Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?

Apr 28, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:29 PM

18.83%chance

2818701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20765

4816

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.31%chance

5717669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13461

7504

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.97%chance

5212270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19342

7418

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

46

39

39

30

25

21

19

Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2027?

Apr 18, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.62%chance

404489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3475

1633

Will the French President of the Republic dissolve the National Assembly again before the end of 2025 ?

Jul 18, 8:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.19%chance

152832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

813

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

302531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

901

How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?

Jul 1, 7:52 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

19.27%chance

201837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

943

Will the USA have a national Carbon Tax by the end of 2030?

Sep 14, 10:07 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

25.65%chance

181552

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

928

Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?

Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM

46.74%chance

14929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

937

Will I win the 2025 "National Middle East History Competition"?

Jul 16, 7:01 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

42.06%chance

6443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

852

Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035?

Jun 29, 5:49 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

46.25%chance

10344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

928

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