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Prediction markets for The Nature Conservancy

Will Rory Stewart be a politician again by 2030?

Feb 25, 5:19 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

33.84%chance

211363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1412

689

Will the Northern White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum cottoni) become Extinct by 2100?

Feb 11, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

85.22%chance

81306

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1248

123

Conservationists purchase Rothbury estate (England's largest land sale in 30 years)?

Oct 29, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

68.6%chance

5478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1478

677

Is Porifera or Ctenophora sister to the rest of the animals?

Jan 15, 8:16 PMJan 1, 8:11 PM

6333

OptionProbability

Porifera

Ctenophora

None of the above

56

28

16

Wild Honey Bees functionally extinct in the USA by 2030?

Jul 8, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.37%chance

10139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

66

Giant Panda born in a United States zoo in 2026

Jan 16, 8:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.95%chance

7110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Will either of the two remaining northern white rhinos give birth naturally or by surrogate by the end of 2029?

Aug 3, 1:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.08%chance

478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

78

When will (inelastic) graviton-* scattering be observed?

Aug 31, 3:45 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.69%chance

560

OptionProbability

NO

YES

248

135

Will thick-billed parrots be breeding in the wild in the US by 2040.

Sep 24, 3:04 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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