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Prediction markets for The Numbers

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

69%chance

159139989

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1698

1437

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

222962

Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?

Mar 3, 1:31 AMJun 1, 7:00 AM

40.58%chance

542883

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1203

370

Will the [5, 5] Ramsey number by known before 2040?

Apr 8, 5:56 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

70.66%chance

162189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1348

811

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

46.03%chance

351443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

815

Elon Musk will have more children in 2025 than the number of new Tesla models released in 2025.

Sep 18, 7:17 PMJan 6, 4:59 AM

37.54%chance

8960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

775

Will there be more One Piece chapters than the number of Pokemon released when the manga ends?

Jan 18, 4:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

44.05%chance

22537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

906

Is the 20th Busy Beaver number independent of set theory?

Jan 31, 5:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.11%chance

16517

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

771

Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 6:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.72%chance

10400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

834

Will the FDA approved a drug that claims to reduce the number of hours of sleep you need by 2040?

Nov 12, 6:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

37.17%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

Will the number of wards and branches in the LDS (Mormon) Church decrease year-over-year between now and 2030?

Mar 23, 1:48 AMMay 2, 5:59 AM

46.78%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2026

1742

Will the next change in NATO membership result in an increase in the number of members?

Mar 29, 7:00 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

51.92%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

962

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