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Prediction markets for The Observer

Is solipsism true such that I am the only observer?

Apr 24, 4:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.41%chance

29921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

899

Will large-scale spatial curvature of the Universe be observed before 2040?

Oct 3, 1:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.12%chance

17446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

867

Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?

Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.55%chance

15385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

965

Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?

Aug 2, 4:58 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

69.01%chance

13286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

255

110

Space Mission or groundbased observation device whose major objectives from the start include observation of 3l/Atlas?

Oct 14, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.32%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

582

145

Will "METR's Observations of Reward Hacking in Rece..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 26, 12:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

I observe the total eclipse on August 12, 2026?

May 26, 6:39 PMAug 13, 11:59 PM

72.41%chance

2131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

162

62

Will glueballs be definitively observed experimentally by the end of 2035?

Apr 5, 8:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.2%chance

892

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

151

What will the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) for the San Francisco metro be at its August release?

Jul 11, 4:54 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

585

OptionProbability

$4,125 – $4,175

< $4,025

$4,075 – $4,125

$4,175 – $4,225

> $4,225

$4,025 – $4,075

49

42

42

42

42

34

Will a Terrascope (a space telescope that uses a planet's atmosphere as a giant lens) launch and successfully perform observations by the end of 2042?

Sep 7, 11:57 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

27.59%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

Will a bright comet be observed in the northern hemisphere before 2030?

Apr 17, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

91

Is the probability of observing yourself to be a human closer to 1 or closer to 0?

Jun 17, 9:47 PM

40

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