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Prediction markets for The Observer

Will another interstellar object be observed inside the solar system in 2025 ?

Jul 3, 8:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.16%chance

281860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

37

Is solipsism true such that I am the only observer?

Apr 24, 4:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.93%chance

29892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1356

864

What will be the lowest cost per dose observed for the R21 malaria vaccine before January 1st, 2026? (currently $3.90)

Mar 15, 9:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6743

OptionProbability

$3.51-3.90 USD

$2.51-3.00 USD

$3.01-3.50 USD

$2.01-2.50 USD

$1.51-2.00 USD

<$1.50 USD

Other

22

18

18

16

14

8

3

Will large-scale spatial curvature of the Universe be observed before 2040?

Oct 3, 1:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.6%chance

15414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

845

Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?

Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.55%chance

15385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

965

What is the cause of the recent tremors observed on the Danish island of Bornholm?

May 15, 8:06 PMAug 1, 9:59 PM

9283

OptionProbability

Supersonic aircraft breaking the sound barrier

Weapon detonation

Earthquake

77

20

4

Space Mission or groundbased observation device whose major objectives from the start include observation of 3l/Atlas?

Oct 14, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.32%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?

Aug 2, 4:58 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

63%chance

11248

OptionVotes

NO

YES

224

127

Will "METR's Observations of Reward Hacking in Rece..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 26, 12:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

Will glueballs be definitively observed experimentally by the end of 2035?

Apr 5, 8:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.2%chance

892

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

151

Will a Terrascope (a space telescope that uses a planet's atmosphere as a giant lens) launch and successfully perform observations by the end of 2042?

Sep 7, 11:57 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

27.59%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

I observe the total eclipse on August 12, 2026?

May 26, 6:39 PMAug 13, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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