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Prediction markets for The Office Group

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

Jan 24, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

878733

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?

Jun 19, 3:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

94.43%chance

354967

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3900

193

Was Jeffrey Goldberg deliberately added to the "Houthi PC" Signal group chat?

Mar 24, 9:25 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

4.42%chance

224316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4653

215

Will I get to "Feel the AGI" on the big screen before 2033?

Feb 14, 5:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.86%chance

312819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

338

Will Joe Biden be alive by 31 December 2026?

Feb 7, 11:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90%chance

372281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

363

97

Elon Musk financially backs campaign to remove Trump from office?

Jun 6, 3:13 PMDec 31, 4:06 PM

18.12%chance

172277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2126

470

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.9%chance

232276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2390

418

Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026?

Apr 7, 3:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.28%chance

10320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

Will the Labour party be in office for more than 4 years before the next general election?

Aug 26, 3:54 PMJul 4, 3:49 PM

67%chance

8197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

70

How many people will attend the Unite the Kingdom march on 16 May in London?

May 13, 9:22 PMMay 13, 10:59 PM

277

OptionProbability

100,000 - 249,999

50,000 - 99,999

0 - 9,999

10,000 - 49,999

250,000 - 499,999

500,000 - 749,999

750,000 - 1,000,000

Above 1,000,000

37

33

6

6

5

5

5

5

Senior Officer+ leads Ukrainian party to 15+ member faction in next parliamentary election.

May 25, 1:02 PMNov 25, 1:47 PM

27.07%chance

264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

101

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