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Prediction markets for The Office Group

Who will be US President on January 1, 2029?

Dec 4, 10:18 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

5015292

OptionProbability

Donald Trump

JD Vance

Other

Joe Biden

Kamala Harris

No one/office no longer exists

Nikki Haley

Ron DeSantis

A Democrat (do not pick, see description)

A Republican (do not pick, see description)

Tim Walz

80

18

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

🇮🇷🇮🇱 Will Iranian leadership or Israeli leadership change first?

Oct 2, 12:56 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM

796447

OptionProbability

Iran - Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei

Israel - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

62

38

Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?

Jun 19, 3:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

94.43%chance

354967

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3900

193

Was Jeffrey Goldberg deliberately added to the "Houthi PC" Signal group chat?

Mar 24, 9:25 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

5.48%chance

213816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4153

241

Will fatal ICE shooting in the US occur again before March 2026?

Jan 26, 2:31 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

35%chance

432890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

914

265

Will I get to "Feel the AGI" on the big screen before 2033?

Feb 14, 5:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.86%chance

312819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

338

Elon Musk financially backs campaign to remove Trump from office?

Jun 6, 3:13 PMDec 31, 4:06 PM

18.12%chance

172277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2126

470

Confrontation between ICE and Minnesota police

Jan 25, 2:23 AMApr 1, 1:16 AM

25%chance

142067

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will ICE, including CBP, be involved in violent activities at the 2026 Super Bowl?

Jan 29, 6:04 PMFeb 9, 12:00 AM

21.13%chance

351920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Credible evidence that Iran was involved in Bondi Beach shooting?

Dec 31, 8:02 AMJul 1, 6:52 AM

4.28%chance

16468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

473

21

Will a LA governor by 2033 free all non-unanimous jury prisoners, including those reconvicted after retrial?

Jan 9, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.1%chance

2220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

2026 Los Angeles City Controller Election

Nov 9, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Kenneth Mejia (incumbent)

Isadore Hall

Other

33

33

33

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