The Open Platform News

Manifold

Metaculus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Good Judgment Open

Insight Prediction

PredictIt

YES

YES

YES

NO

YES

YES

NO

July 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2027

Before July 1, 2026

Jan 1, 2027 – June 30, 2027

Other

A portion of Fediverse nodes block Threads, either a portion of a particular type of platform such as Mastodon, or certain types of platforms become open to Threads, just on their own, with little intervention from Threads, it just happens

Meta starts funding Fediverse nodes and maintainers via grants, pays to maintain servers in exchange for not blocking Threads/Meta.

Complete, all-out pitch battle in which large portion of Fediverse protocols and nodes absolutely unify against blocking Threads and anything that smells of Meta.

Threads users complain about unsavory Fediverse content leaking in. Non-Threads content is ultimately blocked for most practical purposes, and the integration feature atrophies.

There’s more of a virtue signaling about blocking Threads across the Fediverse, but little actual action. The actual cost of Fediverse users actually preventing Threads from engaging in nodes just far outweighs the perceived threat.

Meta does like spoofing users which are actually just straight up Meta bots that crawl nodes and hoovering up user data. They use their high end programming resources to just crush any resistance through subterfuge.

Meta Entryism, they pay users, influencers, prominent individuals, either above board or below or both, to constantly post propaganda bout how Meta is a changed man and anyone who is against them is against the Fediverse and anything it sta

NO

Jan 1, 2027 to April 30, 2027

May 1, 2027 to August 31, 2027

September 1, 2027 or later