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Prediction markets for The Operating Group

Will a non-MF group be proved this month?

Aug 13, 7:25 AMOct 28, 11:59 PM

83.15%chance

4828999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2222

450

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM

11.68%chance

10215083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2750

364

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.46%chance

73401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2433

411

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.38%chance

242326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2440

410

IRAdvocates v. Apple resolved by EOY 2028?

Nov 29, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.15%chance

131678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1788

560

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

111162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez?

Dec 22, 3:32 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

25.36%chance

51095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1716

583

Bioweapon terrorism by EOY2030?

Jun 29, 9:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.34%chance

17858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

917

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40%chance

3408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

910

Will Aughinish announce production curtailment or major layoffs by end-2026?

Aug 8, 1:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.38%chance

2351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

740

Will there still be at least nine Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:07 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75.32%chance

11201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

981

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

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