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Prediction markets for The Operating Group

Will Iran actually participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Mar 1, 2:59 PMJun 10, 11:59 PM

35.86%chance

9422066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

960

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM

18.13%chance

8911664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2125

471

Will CMOC Group's annual cobalt production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

79.76%chance

910919

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19851

5038

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.54%chance

63393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2425

412

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.9%chance

232276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2390

418

Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

Jan 3, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.34%chance

181709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2263

442

IRAdvocates v. Apple resolved by EOY 2028?

Nov 29, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.15%chance

131678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1788

560

Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez?

Dec 22, 3:32 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

25.36%chance

51095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1716

583

Bioweapon terrorism by EOY2030?

Jun 29, 9:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.21%chance

15833

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

919

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40.69%chance

3391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

922

Will there still be at least nine Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:07 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75.32%chance

11201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

981

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

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