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Prediction markets for The Opps
If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?
Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.08%chance
17469866
OptionVotes
12402
3129
OptionVotes
1410
453
Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?
Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
83.48%chance
743078
OptionVotes
2254
594
Will Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?
Aug 13, 11:58 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM
17.69%chance
232323
OptionVotes
2157
464
Will US citizens have the opportunity to vacation in North Korea on January 1st 2040?
Feb 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
27.54%chance
261108
OptionVotes
1121
931
By 2026, will I regret learning a bunch of math/physics as opposed to focusing more on AI?
Jan 2, 12:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
55.73%chance
181067
OptionVotes
1273
648
If elected, will President Trump succeed in jailing his opponents?
Oct 27, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
38.35%chance
21889
OptionVotes
1268
789
Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?
Aug 23, 12:31 AMSep 23, 3:59 AM
20.06%chance
2875
OptionVotes
1975
742
Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030?
Jun 26, 6:46 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM
38.31%chance
14656
OptionVotes
1269
788
OptionVotes
1071
956
Will the US Senate confirm an opposite-party Supreme Court nominee before 2030?
Feb 21, 1:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
16.74%chance
17476
OptionVotes
1151
950
By 2030, will any Democratic administration succeed in jailing their opponents?
Nov 8, 12:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
39.5%chance
3458
OptionVotes
1238
808