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Prediction markets for The Post

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

18.08%chance

10048532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

1344

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Jan 8, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90%chance

1129061

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

33

Will I succeed in my goal of posting an experiment proposal every Friday for the next 10 weeks?

Mar 18, 1:42 PMMay 29, 11:59 PM

36.89%chance

10817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

805

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.94%chance

17652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

822

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

411

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "The Value Proposition of Romantic Relationships" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 2:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "LLM robots can't pass butter (and they are ha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 4, 7:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Comment on "Death and the Gorgon"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 4:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Customer Satisfaction Opportunities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 12:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "You’re probably overestimating how well you u..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 30, 10:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

Jan 28, 1:19 AMJan 1, 1:19 AM

00

OptionProbability

0-9 Days

10-49 Days

50-99 Days

100+ Days

25

25

25

25

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