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Prediction markets for The Post

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

18.08%chance

10048532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

1344

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 15, 4:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90%chance

112412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1754

32

Will I succeed in my goal of posting an experiment proposal every Friday for the next 10 weeks?

Mar 18, 1:42 PMMay 29, 11:59 PM

67.14%chance

111317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1598

335

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

May 2, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.85%chance

41155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2123

471

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.94%chance

17652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

822

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

411

Will "AlgZoo: uninterpreted models with fewer than ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 5:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Why AIs aren't power-seeking yet" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 22, 7:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Auditing Games for Sandbagging [paper]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 12:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Customer Satisfaction Opportunities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 12:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "One Year in DC" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 11:16 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

Jan 28, 1:19 AMJan 1, 1:19 AM

00

OptionProbability

0-9 Days

10-49 Days

50-99 Days

100+ Days

25

25

25

25

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