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Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

18.08%chance

10048532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

1344

Will George R. R. Martin's next "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"?

Nov 10, 9:11 PMApr 29, 10:09 PM

22.55%chance

126334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1853

540

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.94%chance

17652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

822

Will "My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 6:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

44.06%chance

13386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

737

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

411

Will "WTH is Cerebrolysin, actually?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 10, 7:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.84%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

781

Will "Serious Flaws in CAST" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 24, 8:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Learnings from AI safety course so far" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 30, 2:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "How middle powers may prevent the development..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 2, 8:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "One Year in DC" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 11:16 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Consider chilling out in 2028" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 22, 6:52 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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