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Prediction markets for The Post

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

17.44%chance

10148588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1629

1332

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 15, 4:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90.04%chance

122413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1755

32

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

May 2, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.46%chance

41363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2331

429

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.94%chance

17652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

822

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

411

Will I believe the post "Cardiovascular disease is a solved problem" is broadly correct in August 2028?

Jul 11, 11:37 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

14.1%chance

4180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3280

3065

Will "Model access for third-parties — it's a big deal!" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 1, 9:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Comment on "Death and the Gorgon"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 4:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Immigration to Poland" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 11, 11:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "AI companies' eval reports mostly don't suppo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 9, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 4:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

Jan 28, 1:19 AMJan 1, 1:19 AM

00

OptionProbability

0-9 Days

10-49 Days

50-99 Days

100+ Days

25

25

25

25

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