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Prediction markets for The Post

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

18.08%chance

10048532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

1344

Will Jimmy Kimmel Live post a video by March 31st with ‘Trump’ in the title and it gets more than 5M views after 7 days?

Jan 27, 8:00 AMApr 7, 11:59 PM

99%chance

614929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15977

100

Will Jimmy Kimmel Live post a video by March 31st with ‘Trump’ in the title and it gets less than 1M views after 7 days?

Jan 27, 7:52 AMApr 7, 11:59 PM

5.95%chance

12000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3250

1010

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.94%chance

17652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

822

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

411

Will "It's hard to make scheming evals look realist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 26, 5:44 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Comment on "Death and the Gorgon"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 4:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 6:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "The Value Proposition of Romantic Relationships" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 2:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "LLM robots can't pass butter (and they are ha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 4, 7:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Serious Flaws in CAST" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 24, 8:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

Jan 28, 1:19 AMJan 1, 1:19 AM

00

OptionProbability

0-9 Days

10-49 Days

50-99 Days

100+ Days

25

25

25

25

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