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Top stories

Oval Invincibles Score 226/4 Record Total as Southern Brave Win Sixth Straight and Trent Rockets Beat Invincibles

Oval Invincibles Score 226/4 Record Total as Southern Brave Win Sixth Straight and Trent Rockets Beat Invincibles

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for the Rockets

When will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3118500

OptionProbability

Before 2028-07-01

Before 2028-04-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-10-01

Before 2027-07-01

Before 2027-06-01

Before 2027-05-01

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-07-01

91

80

62

55

44

37

30

19

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will the Falcon 9 Family of rockets launch more times in 2026 than in 2025?

Dec 18, 5:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1%chance

2816677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8999

78

Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 7:29 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

2.5%chance

258293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6723

456

How many Falcon 9-family rockets will SpaceX have launched at the time of their retirement?

Aug 28, 2:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.93%chance

155718

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1913

584

Will the new Tesla Roadster have rockets providing propulsion (not extra grip) for additional acceleration?

Apr 1, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.63%chance

284917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1336

779

Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?

Aug 6, 10:52 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

95.07%chance

194158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4227

553

Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032?

Apr 2, 2:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.04%chance

443822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2039

382

Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2030?

Apr 2, 2:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.71%chance

262124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1864

648

Will a Tesla car or truck transport a SpaceX rocket by the end of 2029?

Dec 12, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.31%chance

371949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

946

Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030?

May 10, 11:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.59%chance

15874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1273

873

Will someone die aboard a SpaceX rocket before the end of 2030?

Jul 30, 4:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.16%chance

23777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

868

Will SpaceX come up with new ways to send stuff into space that do not involve rockets by the end of 2030?

Aug 6, 6:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.43%chance

12305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

944

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