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Top stories

Oval Invincibles Score 226/4 Record Total as Southern Brave Win Sixth Straight and Trent Rockets Beat Invincibles

Oval Invincibles Score 226/4 Record Total as Southern Brave Win Sixth Straight and Trent Rockets Beat Invincibles

Authors

3

6 months ago

Prediction markets for the Rockets

Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032?

Apr 2, 2:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.91%chance

433672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1989

394

Will the new Tesla Roadster have rockets providing propulsion (not extra grip) for additional acceleration?

Apr 1, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.51%chance

203260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2414

498

Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?

Aug 6, 10:52 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

92.98%chance

193158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3227

615

Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 7:29 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

13.86%chance

222792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1770

754

How many Falcon 9-family rockets will SpaceX have launched at the time of their retirement?

Aug 28, 2:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

91.25%chance

122113

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3017

429

Will a Tesla car or truck transport a SpaceX rocket by the end of 2029?

Dec 12, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.31%chance

371949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

946

Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2030?

Apr 2, 2:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.98%chance

241612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2298

564

Will the Falcon 9 Family of rockets launch more times in 2026 than in 2025?

Dec 18, 5:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.77%chance

181518

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1999

553

When will the next terminal launch of an orbital rocket that results in a fatality occur?

Mar 21, 4:56 AMMar 29, 3:59 AM

12911

OptionProbability

2027

Other

2028

2029

2030

2026

2031

2032

2025

2033

2034

2035

2024

13

12

10

10

10

8

7

6

5

5

5

5

2

Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030?

May 10, 11:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.45%chance

15674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

951

Will someone die aboard a SpaceX rocket before the end of 2030?

Jul 30, 4:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.86%chance

21627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

718

Will SpaceX come up with new ways to send stuff into space that do not involve rockets by the end of 2030?

Aug 6, 6:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.65%chance

11283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

947

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