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Prediction markets for The Rounds

Who will make the second round of the 2027 French Presidental Election?

Jun 2, 1:52 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

338762

OptionProbability

Marine Le Pen

Edouard Philippe

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Gabriel Attal

Dominique de Villepin

Jordan Bardella

François Hollande

Éric Zemmour

François Ruffin

Raphaël Glucksmann

Laurent Wauquiez

Bernard Cazeneuve

Xavier Bertrand

David Lisnard

Bruno Retailleau

Christine de Lagarde

Fabien Roussel

85

34

30

12

9

8

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

Will FTX raise a down round before the end of 2026?

Oct 30, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.47%chance

277959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3103

597

Is Manifold Monitoring the Situation in 2026? [ROUND 2]

Feb 28, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.31%chance

123445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

892

Will the Trump administration begin rounding up the neurodivergent

May 7, 8:28 PMJan 20, 9:25 PM

2.04%chance

121281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

692

14

Will Troy Jackson get 50% or more in the first round of the Maine senate election?

Sep 7, 6:17 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

61007

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1322

756

Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?

Aug 3, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.85%chance

12413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

797

Brazil 2026 Election: Will the presidential election be decided in first round?

Dec 2, 12:15 AMOct 4, 11:59 PM

6.06%chance

8374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

394

25

Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.38%chance

6234

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

88

Will the 2027 presidential French elections be decided at the first round?

Sep 20, 10:29 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

3.19%chance

5180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

98

Will "Conceptual Rounding Errors" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 10:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.6%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

841

Canadian entry for Eurovision 2027 qualify for the final round?

Aug 27, 5:40 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

40.95%chance

550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will a team that goes 2-2 in group advance to the single elimination round of the NBA In-Season Tournament by 2028?

Dec 2, 2:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19

OptionProbability

No

Yes

54

46

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