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The Row News

    Prediction markets for The Row

    OptionProbability

    Jordan Pickford

    Harry Kane

    Bukayo Saka

    Jude Bellingham

    Phil Foden

    Cole Palmer

    Declan Rice

    Marc Guehi

    Dean Henderson

    Elliot Anderson

    Eberechi Eze

    Morgan Rogers

    Anthony Gordon

    John Stones

    Ezri Konsa

    Noni Madueke

    Myles Lewis-Skelly

    Reece James

    Adam Wharton

    Ollie Watkins

    Nick Pope

    James Trafford

    Levi Colwill

    Marcus Rashford

    Trent Alexander-Arnold

    Conor Gallagher

    Ben White

    Dominic Solanke

    Gibbs-White

    Curtis Jones

    Jarrad Branthwaite

    Valentino Livramento

    Jarrod Bowen

    Lewis Hall

    Kobbie Mainoo

    Jordan Henderson

    Liam Delap

    Ivan Toney

    Harry Maguire

    Aaron Ramsdale

    Dan Burn

    Rico Lewis

    Luke Shaw

    Ethan Nwaneri

    Trevoh Chalobah

    Harvey Elliott

    Jarell Quansah

    Jack Grealish

    Jamie Jermaine Bynoe-Gittens

    Ben Chilwell

    Joe Gomez

    Angel Gomes

    James Maddison

    Mason Mount

    James McAtee

    Jobe Bellingham

    Archie Gray

    Tyrick Mitchell

    Tyler Dibling

    Michael Cooper

    Jacob Ramsey

    Kyle Walker

    Harvey Barnes

    Harwood-Bellis

    Alex Scott

    Callum Hudson-Odoi

    Djed Spence

    Max Kilman

    Sam Johnstone

    James Beadle

    Callum Wilson

    Lewis Dunk

    Edward Nketiah

    Jadon Sancho

    Dominic Calvert-Lewin

    Omari Giraud-Hutchinson

    Jack Hinshelwood

    Tyrone Mings

    Ross Barkley

    Rico Henry

    Leif Davis

    Keane Lewis-Potter

    Adam Webster

    James Ward-Prowse

    Tosin Adarabioyo

    Lewis Cook

    Joseph Willock

    Charlie Cresswell

    Emile Smith-Rowe

    92

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    90

    88

    82

    82

    79

    79

    74

    74

    73

    73

    71

    70

    70

    62

    62

    60

    59

    56

    55

    55

    55

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    52

    50

    48

    45

    45

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    40

    34

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    29

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    13

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    9

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    8

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    6

    6

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    6

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    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    OptionProbability

    Have a front facing bumper camera.

    Have a screen in the back row.

    Have a steering wheel.

    Run on a AI4/HW4 computer.

    Run on a AI5 computer.

    Be a Two Seater.

    77

    76

    74

    61

    44

    34

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3197

    836

    OptionProbability

    Execution date set

    Scheduled execution stayed / postponed

    Execution date set (post-October 2025)

    Executed

    Commuted to life / other clemency beyond stay of execution

    Executed in 2026

    Conviction removed (vacated, pardon, actual innocence, or otherwise)

    Released from prison

    Executed in 2025

    Dies while on death row (not executed)

    100

    100

    57

    50

    18

    16

    8

    5

    5

    5

    OptionProbability

    Strikes go beyond March 30th

    15-30 days (strikes end by March 30)

    2-3 days (strikes end by March 3)

    4-7 days (strikes end by March 7)

    8-14 days (strikes end by March 14)

    Other

    73

    24

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3958

    253

    OptionProbability

    Brazil

    France

    Argentina

    Spain

    Other

    Germany

    Italy

    USA

    United Kingdom

    19

    15

    15

    14

    13

    10

    6

    3

    3

    OptionProbability

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Vallteri Bottas?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Antonelli?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Leclerc?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Hamilton?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Leclerc?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Piastri?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Leclerc?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Hamilton?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Norris?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?

    2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Leclerc?

    2026/12/06 (Abu Dhabi) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?

    100

    76

    74

    69

    60

    60

    55

    50

    50

    48

    41

    34

    33

    33

    33

    24

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1170

    855

    What changes should I make to Predictionary?

    Sep 20, 3:51 AMJan 2, 4:34 AM
    6211

    OptionProbability

    Add tooltips that explain how everything works

    Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions

    If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.

    Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.

    Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories

    Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets

    Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.

    Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently

    Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)

    Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.

    Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search

    Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.

    A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user

    Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people

    Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up

    Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.

    Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.

    Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"

    Open markets in new tab by default

    Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely

    Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms

    Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing

    Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market

    Dark Mode

    Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.

    Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column

    Let people see the position of a selected user in each market

    Add reminders to check back on a market after some time

    Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.

    Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.

    Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market

    Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded

    Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?

    Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date

    Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster

    Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields

    Allow people to place long-term limit orders

    Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description

    Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary

    Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)

    Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple

    Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market

    Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)

    Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)

    Make a row flash when its probability changes

    Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard

    Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed

    Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data

    Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself

    Fix links to Manifold markets (currently all links go to "/{username}/undefined")

    Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized

    Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.

    Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.

    Include all unlisted markets

    72

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    55

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    50

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    50

    50

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    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    41

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    41

    41

    OptionProbability

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH Ryan Blaney?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chris Buescher OUT FINISH Ty Gibbs?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will William Byron OUT FINISH Ryan Blaney?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Joey Logano?

    03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?

    03/01 (Austin) - Will Shane van Gisbergen OUT FINISH A. J. Allmendinger?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Ryan Preece OUT FINISH Christopher Bell?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Ross Chastain OUT FINISH Austin Cindric?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Austin Cindric?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Noah Gragson OUT FINISH Austin Dillon?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Kyle Busch) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Chase Briscoe)?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Joey Logano) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Chase Elliott)?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Austin Dillon) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Kyle Larson)?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' ?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' ?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 9 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 9 Outside' ?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Austin Dillon) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Corey LaJoie)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' (John Hunter Nemechek) OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' (Brad Keselowski)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' (Ryan Blaney) OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' (William Byron)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' (Cole Custer) OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' (Cody Ware)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 9 Inside' (AJ Allmendinger) OUT FINISH 'Row 9 Outside' (Ross Chastain)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 10 Inside' (Shane van Gisbergen) OUT FINISH 'Row 10 Outside' (Daniel Suarez)?

    02/22 (Autotrader 400) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Joey Logano?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Ricky Stenhouse?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase ElliottOUT FINISH Ricky Stenhouse?

    02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Brad Keselowski??

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside'?

    03/22 (Darlington) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    03/29 (Cook Out 400) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Chris Buescher?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Ty Gibbs?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH William Byron?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Austin Dillon?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH Tyler Reddick?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Joey Logano?

    03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH William Byron?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Bubba Wallace OUT FINISH Ross Chastain?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Austin Cindric OUT FINISH Ross Chastain?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH William Byron?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Ty Gibbs OUT FINISH Chase Briscoe?

    02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Christopher Bell OUT FINISH Denny Hamlin?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Ryan Blaney) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Carson Hocevar)?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' ?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 8 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 8 Outside' ?

    02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 10 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 10 Outside' ?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Kyle Busch) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Ryan Preece)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Corey Heim) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Alex Bowman)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Chris Buescher) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Joey Logano)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 8 Inside' (Jimmie Johnson) OUT FINISH 'Row 8 Outside' (Bubba Watson)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Chase Briscoe) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Denny Hamlin)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Kyle Larson) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Chase Elliott)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 11 Inside' (Chandler Smith) OUT FINISH 'Row 11 Outside' (Casey Mears)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Ty Gibbs) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Christopher Bell)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Justin Allgaier) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Austin Cindric)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' (Zane Smith) OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' (Michael McDowell)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' (Connor Zilisch) OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' (Erik Jones)?

    02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' (Josh Berry) OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' (Carson Hocevar)?

    11/08 (Miami) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

    03/01 (COTA) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside'?

    03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Blaney OUT FINISH Reddick?

    100

    100

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    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    48

    48

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

    02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside'?

    02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside'?

    02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside'?

    03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?

    03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will Austill Hill OUT FINISH Carson Kvapil?

    03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will Sheldon Creed OUT FINISH Sammy Smith?

    11/07 (Miami) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

    02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?

    02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside'?

    02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside'?

    03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

    03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will Jesse Love OUT FINISH Justin Allgaier?

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    50

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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