The Row News
Prediction markets for The Row
Who will be selected for England’s final 26-man squad for the 2026 World Cup?
OptionProbability
Jordan Pickford
Harry Kane
Bukayo Saka
Jude Bellingham
Phil Foden
Cole Palmer
Declan Rice
Marc Guehi
Dean Henderson
Elliot Anderson
Eberechi Eze
Morgan Rogers
Anthony Gordon
John Stones
Ezri Konsa
Noni Madueke
Myles Lewis-Skelly
Reece James
Adam Wharton
Ollie Watkins
Nick Pope
James Trafford
Levi Colwill
Marcus Rashford
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Conor Gallagher
Ben White
Dominic Solanke
Gibbs-White
Curtis Jones
Jarrad Branthwaite
Valentino Livramento
Jarrod Bowen
Lewis Hall
Kobbie Mainoo
Jordan Henderson
Liam Delap
Ivan Toney
Harry Maguire
Aaron Ramsdale
Dan Burn
Rico Lewis
Luke Shaw
Ethan Nwaneri
Trevoh Chalobah
Harvey Elliott
Jarell Quansah
Jack Grealish
Jamie Jermaine Bynoe-Gittens
Ben Chilwell
Joe Gomez
Angel Gomes
James Maddison
Mason Mount
James McAtee
Jobe Bellingham
Archie Gray
Tyrick Mitchell
Tyler Dibling
Michael Cooper
Jacob Ramsey
Kyle Walker
Harvey Barnes
Harwood-Bellis
Alex Scott
Callum Hudson-Odoi
Djed Spence
Max Kilman
Sam Johnstone
James Beadle
Callum Wilson
Lewis Dunk
Edward Nketiah
Jadon Sancho
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Omari Giraud-Hutchinson
Jack Hinshelwood
Tyrone Mings
Ross Barkley
Rico Henry
Leif Davis
Keane Lewis-Potter
Adam Webster
James Ward-Prowse
Tosin Adarabioyo
Lewis Cook
Joseph Willock
Charlie Cresswell
Emile Smith-Rowe
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OptionProbability
Have a front facing bumper camera.
Have a screen in the back row.
Have a steering wheel.
Run on a AI4/HW4 computer.
Run on a AI5 computer.
Be a Two Seater.
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76
74
61
44
34
Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?
OptionVotes
YES
NO
3197
836
What will happen to Robert Roberson, currently sentenced to death for a "shaken baby syndrome" murder?
OptionProbability
Execution date set
Scheduled execution stayed / postponed
Execution date set (post-October 2025)
Executed
Commuted to life / other clemency beyond stay of execution
Executed in 2026
Conviction removed (vacated, pardon, actual innocence, or otherwise)
Released from prison
Executed in 2025
Dies while on death row (not executed)
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100
57
50
18
16
8
5
5
5
OptionProbability
Strikes go beyond March 30th
15-30 days (strikes end by March 30)
2-3 days (strikes end by March 3)
4-7 days (strikes end by March 7)
8-14 days (strikes end by March 14)
Other
73
24
1
1
1
1
Will the S&P 500 increase in every quarter in 2026 and 2027, 8 in a row?
OptionVotes
YES
NO
3958
253
Which country will be the first to win the FIFA World Cup three times in a row?
OptionProbability
Brazil
France
Argentina
Spain
Other
Germany
Italy
USA
United Kingdom
19
15
15
14
13
10
6
3
3
OptionProbability
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Vallteri Bottas?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/12/06 (Abu Dhabi) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
100
76
74
69
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55
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50
48
41
34
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33
24
Chicago tax revenue declines three years in a row due to flight from the city.
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1170
855
OptionProbability
Add tooltips that explain how everything works
Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions
If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.
Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.
Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories
Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets
Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.
Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently
Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)
Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.
Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search
Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.
A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user
Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people
Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up
Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.
Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.
Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"
Open markets in new tab by default
Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely
Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms
Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing
Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market
Dark Mode
Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.
Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column
Let people see the position of a selected user in each market
Add reminders to check back on a market after some time
Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.
Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.
Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market
Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded
Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?
Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date
Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster
Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields
Allow people to place long-term limit orders
Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description
Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary
Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)
Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple
Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market
Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)
Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)
Make a row flash when its probability changes
Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard
Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed
Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data
Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself
Fix links to Manifold markets (currently all links go to "/{username}/undefined")
Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized
Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.
Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.
Include all unlisted markets
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OptionProbability
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH Ryan Blaney?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chris Buescher OUT FINISH Ty Gibbs?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will William Byron OUT FINISH Ryan Blaney?
02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?
02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Joey Logano?
03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?
03/01 (Austin) - Will Shane van Gisbergen OUT FINISH A. J. Allmendinger?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Ryan Preece OUT FINISH Christopher Bell?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Ross Chastain OUT FINISH Austin Cindric?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Austin Cindric?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Noah Gragson OUT FINISH Austin Dillon?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Kyle Busch) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Chase Briscoe)?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Joey Logano) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Chase Elliott)?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Austin Dillon) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Kyle Larson)?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' ?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' ?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 9 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 9 Outside' ?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Austin Dillon) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Corey LaJoie)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' (John Hunter Nemechek) OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' (Brad Keselowski)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' (Ryan Blaney) OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' (William Byron)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' (Cole Custer) OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' (Cody Ware)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 9 Inside' (AJ Allmendinger) OUT FINISH 'Row 9 Outside' (Ross Chastain)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 10 Inside' (Shane van Gisbergen) OUT FINISH 'Row 10 Outside' (Daniel Suarez)?
02/22 (Autotrader 400) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?
02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Kyle Larson?
02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Joey Logano?
02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Ricky Stenhouse?
02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase ElliottOUT FINISH Ricky Stenhouse?
02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Brad Keselowski??
03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?
03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside'?
03/22 (Darlington) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?
03/29 (Cook Out 400) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Chris Buescher?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Ty Gibbs?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH William Byron?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Austin Dillon?
03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?
03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH Tyler Reddick?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Joey Logano?
03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH William Byron?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Bubba Wallace OUT FINISH Ross Chastain?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Austin Cindric OUT FINISH Ross Chastain?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH William Byron?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Ty Gibbs OUT FINISH Chase Briscoe?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Christopher Bell OUT FINISH Denny Hamlin?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Ryan Blaney) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Carson Hocevar)?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' ?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 8 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 8 Outside' ?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 10 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 10 Outside' ?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Kyle Busch) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Ryan Preece)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Corey Heim) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Alex Bowman)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Chris Buescher) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Joey Logano)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 8 Inside' (Jimmie Johnson) OUT FINISH 'Row 8 Outside' (Bubba Watson)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Chase Briscoe) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Denny Hamlin)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Kyle Larson) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Chase Elliott)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 11 Inside' (Chandler Smith) OUT FINISH 'Row 11 Outside' (Casey Mears)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Ty Gibbs) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Christopher Bell)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Justin Allgaier) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Austin Cindric)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' (Zane Smith) OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' (Michael McDowell)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' (Connor Zilisch) OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' (Erik Jones)?
02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' (Josh Berry) OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' (Carson Hocevar)?
11/08 (Miami) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
03/01 (COTA) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?
03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?
03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?
03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside'?
03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Blaney OUT FINISH Reddick?
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OptionProbability
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside'?
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside'?
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside'?
03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?
03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will Austill Hill OUT FINISH Carson Kvapil?
03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will Sheldon Creed OUT FINISH Sammy Smith?
11/07 (Miami) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside'?
02/14 (Daytona - United Rentals 300) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside'?
03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
03/14 (Las Vegas - The LiUNA!) - Will Jesse Love OUT FINISH Justin Allgaier?
100
100
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50
0
0
0
0
0

