The Row News

Lionel Messi to score at least one goal

Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage

USA survives group stage

2+ red cards in any match

Goal from last kick of the game

Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal

Mexico survives group stage

3+ red cards in any match

6+ yellow cards in any match

Red card issued for mouth covering

Team with 0 wins in Group Stage

Black player gets the red card

Bicycle kick attempt

Team scores after being down to 10 men

Both teams score in stoppage time

Player scores against country of birth/heritage

Player bleeding on camera during match

Team loses possession from delay throw-in

Player scores a hat-trick

Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match

Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match

Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)

Team finishes match with 9 players

French-born player scores against France

Goal scored directly from a free-kick

A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament

Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals

“Puto” chant at match

Referee falls down

Any host places 1st in their group

Curaçao scores a goal

Haaland scores over 3.5 goals

Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands

At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal

gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury

Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan

Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick

Cape Verde scores a goal

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200

Canada survives group stage

Trump still alive at end of final match

3+ penalty shootout

Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing

The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals

Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer

Fan hospitalized for heat related illness

20+ penalty goals

Over 9.5 own goals scored

Over 10.5 red cards

Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined

Neymar plays in a match

Trump attends match

Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match

Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet

Players cleat falls off their foot

Ronaldo to cry at the world cup

Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded

Messi scores a goal at 39 years old

A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)

US scores in every single group stage match

Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)

Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?

VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions

South American team reaches semi-final

Champion is unbeaten

Bottle thrown on field

Champion is a first place group stage winner

Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)

2+ European countries reach top 4

Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row

Asian player misses penalty kick

Ronaldo gets in referee face

Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match

Any host nation in quarter final

Messi gets a yellow card

Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt

Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)

Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?

The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner

5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)

Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament

No red cards issued in the Final match

A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.

US goes further than Mexico

Asian player gets the red card

Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats

Over 289.5 total goals scored*

Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?

The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner

Freddy attends the final match

Both teams in final have red on their flag

Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)

Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage

Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits

Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick

Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?

Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match

Someone escorted off field shirtless

More own goals than red cards in tourney

Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament

Elon Musk attends match

USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further

15+ minutes of the stoppage time

Team loses after leading 2-0

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300

Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness

A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message

Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved

Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match

Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium

2 UEFA teams in final

Player tears their ACL

Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours

Flares in stands during match in USA

Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor

Spain goes further than France

Laser pointer on goalie during match

Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup

Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match

Goal scored within 1st minute

Messi to score a free kick

VAR overturns second yellow card

Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption

Any match is canceled or postponed

The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals

30+ penalty goals

USA player gets the red card

Disruption at Iran match

Betting scandal reported

Canada goes further than US

Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal

6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage

3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup

Team captain gets red card

Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?

Winning team has a foreign manager

Haaland scores on every game he plays

Bald person gets the red card

Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass

Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match

Over 395.5 yellow cards

Both players in this photo* play each other in a match

Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)

A penalty shootout to decide the Final match

Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final

Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match

World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage

Ronaldo does not start

Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)

First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved

Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties

Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs

Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs

Smoke bomb during match in USA

Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)

Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player

Match has a dedicated moment of silence

Messi scores on every game he plays

The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists

Player gets spat on during match

25+ people arrested at stadium

Salt Bae attending a match

Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)

Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards

Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo

Freddy shown during a match broadcast

England loses on penalties

Final features a team that has never made it to the final before

Animal (not birdy) is on field during match

5+ hat tricks

An African nation to reach the Semi-finals

ICE makes a capture at the stadium

Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)

Goal scored from own half

Fans invade field during match

Player throws captains armband

Headbutt during match

Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match

King Charles attends match

Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?

Champion is a first time World Cup winner

Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average

Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)

All 48 teams score at least 1 goal

Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)

Another match with 3+ red cards

Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage

Asia team reaches semi final

Football is coming home?

Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands

All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage

Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament

Player walks off pitch protesting referee

Team wins a match without making a single substitution

Major security incident

Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)

Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?

Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline

German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt

15+ cards in any match

Player bit during match

Trump attends 3 or more games

Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer

Bonnie Blue attending a match

Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot

Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)

Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)

Match is forfeited

Trump dancing at match

The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds

10+ goals in any match

An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag

Team gets removed or disqualified

Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament

USA plays Iran

The Netherlands does not survive group stage

Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal

Team finishes third in group and makes it to final

Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card

Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium

Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)

Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400

Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant

Player shits in the pants during match

Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds

Omar Artan is at a World Cup match

Players / members of team attempt to defect

Confirmed case of Ebola at the match

Ronaldo does jerkin move

A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner

Player dies during World Cup

A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points

Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant

Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)

Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match

Player suffers cardiac arrest

All 3 host countries win the opener

Ronaldo scores before Messi

[AUS] A Driver DNF due to reliability problems (e.g., engine, power unit etc.)

[AUS] Red flag during qualifying

[AUS] At least 3 DNF

[AUS] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[TEST] Cadillac sets the slowest lap time of the whole testing session

[AUS] P1 & P2 by same team

[AUS] winner has no WDC title

[AUS] Audi reaches Q2 (Qualifying)

[AUS] Ferrari finishes on the podium

[AUS] An Audi driver finishes in top 10 (race)

[AUS] Verstappen finishes in top 10 (race)

[CHN] Yellow flag first lap Sprint

[CHN] Yellow flag first lap main race

[CHN] Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race

[CHN] Bearman scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main qualifying

[CHN] VSC or Physical Safety car during the sprint race

[CHN] A Ferrari is P1 at the end of lap 1 (main race)

[CHN] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race

[CHN] Bearman scores points in the main race (top 10)

[CHN] 5 or more DNF in the main race

[JAP] Physical Safety Car during the race

[JAP] Team other than Mercedes or Ferrari gets a podium

[JAP] Antonelli wins the race

[MIA] Non-Mercedes pole position in sprint qualifying

[MIA] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race

[MIA] Leclerc podium in the sprint race

[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the main race

[MIA] A Mercedes finishes outside the top 5 in the sprint race

[MIA] Gasly reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Antonelli wins the main race

[MIA] A McLaren on the podium in the main race

[MIA] Race start time is changed or cancelled due to weather conditions

[CAN] Three different teams on the podium (main race)

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint qualifying

[CAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the sprint race

[CAN] 5 or more DNS/DNF in the main race

[CAN] An Alpine finishes in top 10 in the main race

[CAN] Hamilton finishes on podium in the main race

[CAN] Hamilton outfinishes Verstappen (main race)

[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race

[MON] Red flag during qualifying

[MON] Red flag during the race

[MON] A driver overtakes their teammate on track

[MON] Safety car (non-virtual) during the race

[MON] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds

[MON] Three different teams on the podium

[MON] Hadjar finishes in top 5 (race)

[MON] A Williams scores points (top 10)

[MON] 3 or more DNF/DNS

[BAR] An Audi reaches Q3

[BAR] Hamilton on the podium

[BAR] Verstappen finishes in top 5

[BAR] 3 or more DNF/DNS

[BAR] At least one driver that finishes in top 5 does 3 pit stops (or more)

[BAR] At least one podium finisher from team other than Ferrari or Mercedes

[AUT] Qualifying lap invalidated due to track limits

[AUT] Physical safety car during the race

[AUT] Red flag during qualifying

Leave it open for the upcoming GP

[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[AUT] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qual or race

[AUS] Physical Safety Car during the race

[AUS] Yellow flag first lap

[AUS] Both Aston Martins qualify in the last row (21st and 22nd)

[TEST] Cadillac in the top 5 of the timesheets on any single day

[TEST] Ferrari sets the most laps during the whole testing session

[TEST] Mercedes sets the fastest lap time of the whole testing session

[TEST] First red flag caused by a driver error/spin etc. (not mechanical failure)

[AUS] Both Aston Martins retire after formation lap before race start

[AUS] The car finishing on P5 gets lapped

[AUS] Both Aston Martins don't finish the race

[AUS] Hadjar finishes on the podium

[CHN] Ferrari qualifies 1st or 2nd in the sprint qualifying (at least one driver)

[CHN] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race

[CHN] Gasly scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CHN] An Audi reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[CHN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race

[CHN] An Audi scores points in the main race (top 10)

[CHN] A Red Bull Racing driver finishes in top 5 (main race)

[CHN] Winner wins by 11.00 seconds or more?

[JAP] Both Aston Martins DNF

[JAP] Yellow flag first lap

[JAP] Red flag in qualifying

[JAP] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[JAP] Team other than Mercedes gets pole position in qualifying

[JAP] Bearman reaches Q3

[JAP] 5 or more DNF (including DNS)

[JAP] Linblad scores points (top 10)

[JAP] Bortoleto scores points (top 10)

[JAP] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (face)

[JAP] A McLaren retires/DNS due to reliability issues

[JAP] Verstappen on the podium

[MIA] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying

[MIA] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[MIA] Colapinto scores points in the sprint race

[MIA] Hadjar scores points in the sprint race

[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the sprint race

[MIA] McLaren pole position in qualifying for the main race

[MIA] Red flag during qualifying for the main race

[MIA] A Mercedes qualifies outside the top 5 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Hadjar doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Verstappen on the Podium in the main race

[MIA] 5 or more DNF/DNS

[MIA] Both Ferrari finish in top 6 in the main race

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[CAN] An Audi reaches SQ3 (Sprint Qualifying)

[CAN] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race

[CAN] A Ferrari on the podium in the sprint race

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the sprint race

[CAN] Yellow flag in the first lap of the sprint race

[CAN] Sainz scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CAN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race

[CAN] Red flag during qualifying for the main race

[CAN] An Audi reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)

[CAN] A Williams reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)

[CAN] Yellow flag first lap of the main race

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race

[CAN] Linblad scores points in the main race

[CAN] An Audi finishes in top 10 in the main race

[CAN] Oscar Piastri Finishes on Podium in the Main Race

[CAN] English broadcoast shows Colapinto's onboard camera view in the main race

[CAN] 7 or more DNS/DNF in the main race

[CAN] Piastri scores points in the main race

[MON] 5 or more on-track overtakes

[MON] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[MON] Wet or intermediate tyres used during the race

[MON] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[BAR] Physical Safety Car during the race

[BAR] Yellow flag in the first lap of the race

[BAR] Mercedes driver wins

[BAR] Both McLaren qualify in top 4

[BAR] Antonelli pole position in qualifying

[BAR] Hulkenberg scores points (top 10)

[BAR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race

Yudkowsky Attends

Two people make intense eye contact for 60 seconds without smiling or laughing

Aella Attends

Mana is exchanged for goods

Mana is exchanged for services

There will be more than one reporter

Someone attends in a partial fursuit

Smores are consumed

Someone wears a suit and tie

There are at least five people talking after 5am

Trump golfs the weekend of the conference

Barak sells/offers something at night market

Standard (not RPS) poker tournament

Someone does the 6 7 thing with their hands in front of Eliezer Yudkowsky and he clearly sees it

Someone cries

>4 people group hug

10+ people with a Wikipedia page attend

Robin Hanson comes even though he's meant to be at the Public Outreach Conference

Albie gets hugs from at least 5 different people

Someone holds a kabbalat shabbat

cuddle puddle of >5

Someone gets banned from manifest

More than five (non-admin) mods in attendance

Someone gets a job offer at the conference

Someone does something to make an option resolve Yes and later regrets it

All official @ManifoldSports World Cup markets for games played during the conference auto-resolve without issues

Attendance is higher than last year

There is a Karaoke Event

There will be a marshmallow fight

Someone gets a boyfriend at the conference

Someone previously opposed to the Effective Altruism movement is convinced to support it instead

@Zoli hosts a wrestling event

A debate is held over whether a fursuit is full or partial

A billionaire shows up

one or more people are unable to attend due to fuckery at border/customs

Someone breakdances competently

Someone takes the "Giving What We Can" pledge

A session receives more than 2x RSVPs than the session location’s listed capacity

Analytic Philosophy vs. Rationalism panel happens

someone gets convinced to start writing on substack

Someone adds >= 10k liquidity to this market

7 or more people attend Sunday Mass with @Austin

there will be someone with a friend AI necklace

Malcolm Collins attends

Someone unpacks a Pokemon card worth >$10

10 or more markets are created and resolved within an hour (popups)

Someone writes a hit piece

Someone adds >= 20k liquidity to this market

Someone gets a girlfriend at the conference

Someone changes Robin Hanson's mind (verified by Hanson) - NA if he doesn't attend

Someone has a manifold crane logo tattoo

RPS Poker Tournament

BTC falls below $100,000 during the conference

There is a Costume Contest

CFTC or other prediction market regulator appears (may be an employee)

Someone rickrolls Eliezer Yudkowsky

At least 3 Norwegian people attend Manifest.

There is a New York Times reporter present, like Manifest 2023

Someone loses at least 50% of one eyebrow

Nothing Ever Happens during the conference (No major world news breaks such as Ukraine Ceasefire, China Trade Deal, etc)

Someone loses at least 25% of their total eyebrow mass

There's an earthquake in Berkeley 3.0 or higher

Scott Alexander mentions Tyler Cowen in public (no private convo)

Prostitution for mana occurs (over 10k mana)

@ian finally reveals what his new middle name is

Someone unpacks a Pokemon card worth >$50

Someone attends in a full fursuit

Dwarkesh reveals who his "biggest guest yet" was going to be

There is an orgy

An article about the conference appears in the New York Times within one week of the conference's closing

Someone breaks an arm

Someone who previously did not belive that Tiramisu is cake is convinced otherwise

Runs out of Huel/Soylent

A pope attends

There is more than one orgy

There will be a Worldcoin Orb

Someone does coinflips and gets tails 7 times in a row

Destiny joins Manifold and bets on this market

Polymarket creates a market related to manifest

Someone finally sets up a passable ball pit

The conference is cancelled

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Antonelli?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Leclerc?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Vallteri Bottas?

2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Norris?

2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Ocon

2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Russell?

2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Leclerc?

2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Ocon OUT FINISH Perez?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Albon OUT FINISH Alonso?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Bearman?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Bortoletto OUT FINISH Bottas?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Ocon?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Sainz?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Leclerc?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Leclerc?

2026/12/06 (Abu Dhabi) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/06/28 (Red Bull Ring) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/06/28 (Red Bull Ring) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Hamilton?

2026/06/28 (Red Bull Ring) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Leclerc?

2026/07/05 (Great Britain) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/07/19 (Belgium) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Norris?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Leclerc?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Hamilton?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Leclerc?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Leclerc?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Hamilton?

2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?

2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Antonelli?

2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Antonelli?

2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Antonelli?

2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Antonelli?

2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Russell?

2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Stroll OUT FINISH Alonso?

2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Bottas OUT FINISH Bearman?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Colapinto OUT FINISH Gasly?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Hadjar OUT FINISH Hamilton?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Hulkenberg OUT FINISH Lawson?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Linbald?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Perez OUT FINISH Piastri?

2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Stroll OUT FINISH Verstappen?

Have a front facing bumper camera.

Have a screen in the back row.

Have a steering wheel.

Run on a AI4/HW4 computer.

Run on a AI5 computer.

YES

Margin of victory is less than 2 3/4 lengths

Jimmy Carter is alive at the conclusion of race

Official track condition will be Fast

Winning Horse's Number is Prime (1 is not prime)

The Kentucky Derby is not be raced two years in a row at any point before 2050

Winning jockey celebrates with fist pump

Winning jockey thanks owner first in post-race interview

3 words in the winning horse's name

Winner beats last year's winning time (2:01.57)

Winning horse's name is 10 or 11 letters long (not counting spaces)

A penis is hanging out on the track (jockey or spectator, not horse)

One or more horse participants die within a week of the race (before or after, during too)

Execution date set

Scheduled execution stayed / postponed

Execution date set (post-October 2025)

Executed

Commuted to life / other clemency beyond stay of execution

Executed in 2026

Conviction removed (vacated, pardon, actual innocence, or otherwise)

Released from prison

Executed in 2025

Brazil

France

Argentina

Spain

Other

Germany

Italy

USA

YES

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH Ryan Blaney?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chris Buescher OUT FINISH Ty Gibbs?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will William Byron OUT FINISH Ryan Blaney?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Joey Logano?

03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?

03/01 (Austin) - Will Shane van Gisbergen OUT FINISH A. J. Allmendinger?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Ryan Preece OUT FINISH Christopher Bell?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Ross Chastain OUT FINISH Austin Cindric?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Austin Cindric?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Noah Gragson OUT FINISH Austin Dillon?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Kyle Busch) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Chase Briscoe)?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Joey Logano) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Chase Elliott)?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Austin Dillon) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Kyle Larson)?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' ?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' ?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 9 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 9 Outside' ?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Austin Dillon) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Corey LaJoie)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' (John Hunter Nemechek) OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' (Brad Keselowski)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' (Ryan Blaney) OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' (William Byron)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' (Cole Custer) OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' (Cody Ware)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 9 Inside' (AJ Allmendinger) OUT FINISH 'Row 9 Outside' (Ross Chastain)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 10 Inside' (Shane van Gisbergen) OUT FINISH 'Row 10 Outside' (Daniel Suarez)?

02/22 (Autotrader 400) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

03/22 (Darlington) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Joey Logano?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Ricky Stenhouse?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase ElliottOUT FINISH Ricky Stenhouse?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Brad Keselowski??

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside'?

03/29 (Cook Out 400) - Will Denny Hamlin OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

03/29 (Cook Out 400) - Will DWilliam Byron OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

05/31 (Nashville) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

06/14 (Pocono) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

11/08 (Miami) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

06/21 (Coronado) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

06/21 (Coronado) - Will Shane van Gisbergen OUT FINISH Carson Hocevar?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Chris Buescher?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Ty Gibbs?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH William Byron?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Austin Dillon?

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH Tyler Reddick?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Joey Logano?

03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH William Byron?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Bubba Wallace OUT FINISH Ross Chastain?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Austin Cindric OUT FINISH Ross Chastain?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH William Byron?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Ty Gibbs OUT FINISH Chase Briscoe?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Christopher Bell OUT FINISH Denny Hamlin?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Ryan Blaney) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Carson Hocevar)?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' ?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 8 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 8 Outside' ?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 10 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 10 Outside' ?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Kyle Busch) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Ryan Preece)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Corey Heim) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Alex Bowman)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Chris Buescher) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Joey Logano)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 8 Inside' (Jimmie Johnson) OUT FINISH 'Row 8 Outside' (Bubba Watson)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Chase Briscoe) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Denny Hamlin)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Kyle Larson) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Chase Elliott)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 11 Inside' (Chandler Smith) OUT FINISH 'Row 11 Outside' (Casey Mears)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Ty Gibbs) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Christopher Bell)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Justin Allgaier) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Austin Cindric)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' (Zane Smith) OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' (Michael McDowell)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' (Connor Zilisch) OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' (Erik Jones)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' (Josh Berry) OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' (Carson Hocevar)?

11/08 (Miami) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

03/01 (COTA) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

03/29 (Cook Out 400) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside'?

02/13 (Daytona - Fresh From Florida 250) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Ty Majeski) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Michael McDowell)?

02/13 (Daytona - Fresh From Florida 250) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Tanner Gray) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Carson Hocevar)?

02/13 (Daytona - Fresh From Florida 250) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside'?

02/13 (Daytona - Fresh From Florida 250) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside'?

02/13 (Daytona - Fresh From Florida 250) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Kaden Honeycutt) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Jake Garcia)?

03/20 (Darlington) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

03/20 (Darlington) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside'?

05/29 (Nashville) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

06/19 (Coronado) - Will Adam Andretti OUT FINISH Connor Mosack?

06/19 (Coronado) - Will Grant Enfinger OUT FINISH Corey Lajoie?

06/19 (Coronado) - Will Chandler Smith OUT FINISH Jimmy Johnson?

11/06 (Miami) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

02/13 (Daytona - Fresh From Florida 250) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Grant Enfinger) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Tyler Ankrum)?

02/13 (Daytona - Fresh From Florida 250) - Will 'Row 8 Inside' (Tony Stewart) OUT FINISH 'Row 8 Outside' (Justin Haley)?

03/20 (Darlington) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?

03/20 (Darlington) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside'?

06/19 (Coronado) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Kaden Honeycutt) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Layne Riggs)?

06/19 (Coronado) - Will Jimmie Johnson OUT FINISH Jackson Lee?

06/19 (Coronado) - Will Kaden Honeycutt OUT FINISH Brendan Queen?