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Prediction markets for The Standard

Will the US change to permanent Standard Time before 2030?

Oct 30, 5:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.01%chance

292209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

916

Will ZFC no longer be the standard foundation for mathematics by 2050?

May 5, 10:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.14%chance

501786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

919

Will the German standard VAT rate increase by December 31st 2025?

Feb 12, 6:51 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

12.86%chance

71603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2603

384

Will the source of the Dark Energy effect be found among currently known Standard Model particles?

Aug 7, 9:24 AMNov 3, 2:59 PM

52.31%chance

181476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

830

Will NASA establish a standard time zone or timekeeping method for the moon by the end of 2026

Apr 22, 4:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.57%chance

231433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2140

732

Will all major Western car manufacturers adopt the Tesla charging standard (NACS) by 2026?

Dec 20, 10:59 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

80.04%chance

22872

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

902

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

927

By the end of 2050, will it be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations?

Mar 27, 1:00 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.11%chance

23578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

958

Will the standard model iPhone 17 get a 120 hz screen?

Jul 13, 3:02 PMSep 10, 3:01 PM

48.7%chance

8515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

974

Will the majority of US high school standardized tests be administered and graded by AI systems by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:42 AMJan 7, 5:59 AM

39.06%chance

7290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

801

Will AI generate an appropriate remix (that sounds wonderful and not horrible enough [by reddit/my/the Internet's standards]) of the AOE2 and Starcraft 2 theme songs by 2026?

Jan 7, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.64%chance

13250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

943

Which diagram resource URI pattern will become the MCP standard by end of 2025?

Apr 3, 5:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

diagram://host/id

diag://host/id/version

diagram+http://host/id

mcp://diagram/id

resource://mcp/diagram/id

20

20

20

20

20

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