The Street News

Gary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions

Dec 21, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

397833

OptionProbability

Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.

We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).

Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate.

No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race”.

Work on new approaches such as world models and neurosymbolic will escalate.

2025 will be known as the year of the peak bubble, and also the moment at which Wall Street began to lose confidence in generative AI.

What will be the outcome of Trump's lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal?

Jul 19, 7:42 AMJan 1, 8:41 AM

434822

OptionProbability

Settlement outside of court

Court ruling in favor of WSJ

Court ruling in favor of Trump

Humanoid robots walking down the street by EOY2035?

Jun 18, 3:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.41%chance

94480

OptionVotes

YES

5215

383

San Mateo Restaurant Death Market - which 5 of these die first? 100% = die

Nov 18, 1:18 AMNov 25, 7:59 AM

153184

OptionProbability

3 Bees Coffee

Curry Up Now

Pokeatery

B Street Books

Daeho kalbijjim

McGovern's

Philz Coffee

Sushi Yoshimizu

Saigon City

Takahashi Market

New York Pizza

Izakaya Mai

Mortar & Pestle Bar

O'Neills Irish Pub

Pacific Catch

Gyu-Kaku

Tomatina

Himawari

Pausa

Pancho Villa

The first humanoid robot I see wandering the streets will be made by which company?

Aug 20, 9:33 AMAug 20, 9:30 AM

9624

OptionProbability

Other

Tesla

Figure

Google

OpenAI

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

1455

887

Will the yearly average NO2 concentration in the streets of Berlin be below 30 µg/m³ at the beginning of 2030?

Aug 27, 7:24 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.52%chance

7183

OptionVotes

YES

139

111

Will the winner of Street Fighter 6 at EVO 2026 be from the USA?

Aug 3, 8:58 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

29.34%chance

786

OptionVotes

YES

155

Will the winner of Street Fighter 6 at EVO 2026 be from Japan?

Aug 3, 8:58 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

43.06%chance

237

OptionVotes

YES

115

Will the winner of Street Fighter 6 at EVO 2026 be from the USA?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMAug 10, 1:08 AM

45.66%chance

233

OptionVotes

YES

109

Will Wes Streeting be Health Secretary at the end of 2026?

Feb 14, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will the winner of Street Fighter 6 at EVO 2026 be from Japan?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMAug 11, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

100

The Street News

Prediction markets for The Street

Prediction markets for The Street

Prediction markets for The Street

Gary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions

What will be the outcome of Trump's lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal?

Humanoid robots walking down the street by EOY2035?

San Mateo Restaurant Death Market - which 5 of these die first? 100% = die

The first humanoid robot I see wandering the streets will be made by which company?

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will the yearly average NO2 concentration in the streets of Berlin be below 30 µg/m³ at the beginning of 2030?

Will the winner of Street Fighter 6 at EVO 2026 be from the USA?

Will the winner of Street Fighter 6 at EVO 2026 be from Japan?

Will the winner of Street Fighter 6 at EVO 2026 be from the USA?

Will Wes Streeting be Health Secretary at the end of 2026?

Will the winner of Street Fighter 6 at EVO 2026 be from Japan?

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