The Times News

NYT Tones Down Warning on RFK Jr.-Backed Push-Up Challenge

8 months ago

Mark Hamill Says Wife Kept Him From Leaving US After Trump Re-election

Celebrities

Politics

Culture

Mark Hamill Says Wife Kept Him From Leaving US After Trump Re-election

9 months ago

UK Rail Police Warn Violence Against Women Up 59% Since 2021

Britain

Crime

Culture

UK Rail Police Warn Violence Against Women Up 59% Since 2021

8 months ago

Britain

Automobile

Business

Tesla Halves UK Lease Prices After 60% July Sales Slide

9 months ago

Soccer

Sports

Newcastle Drop Isak Amid Standoff Over £110 Million Liverpool Offer

9 months ago

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Nov 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181110755

OptionProbability

Other

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Zohran Mamdani

Pete Hegseth

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

Xi Jinping

Marco Rubio

Sam Altman

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Gavin Newsom

Dario Amodei

Claudia Sheinbaum

Elon Musk

AOC

Jerome Powell

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Jensen Huang

Gen Z

Jeffrey Epstein

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Nicholas Maduro

Mark Zuckerberg

Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

Lisa Su

Fei-Fei Li

Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

Millenials

Gen X

Baby Boomers

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Scott Bessent

Sundar Pichai

Narendra Modi

Ursula von der Leyen

Jasmine Crockett

Graham Platner

Kevin Hassett

Gen Alpha

Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

Ahmed al-Sharaa

James Talarico

Jon Ossoff

Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]

Bad Bunny

Kevin Warsh

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6842749

OptionProbability

3-3.5 months

3.5-4 months

4-4.5 months

<3 months

4.5-5 months

5-5.5 months

>7 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41239715

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

YES

2729

2049

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4310153

OptionVotes

YES

10938

8979

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM

7.18%chance

710104

OptionVotes

YES

20076

7889

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.51%chance

247237

OptionVotes

YES

15091

6626

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.81%chance

335935

OptionVotes

YES

4447

225

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

181963

OptionVotes

YES

700

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

19.42%chance

31576

OptionVotes

YES

7442

5382

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

Mar 10, 7:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66%chance

29621

OptionVotes

YES

2161

1890

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

Jan 28, 1:19 AMJan 1, 1:19 AM

OptionProbability

0-9 Days

10-49 Days

50-99 Days

100+ Days

The Times News

Top stories

Prediction markets for The Times

Prediction markets for The Times

Prediction markets for The Times

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

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