The Times News

NYT Tones Down Warning on RFK Jr.-Backed Push-Up Challenge

1 year ago

Mark Hamill Says Wife Kept Him From Leaving US After Trump Re-election

Celebrities

Politics

Culture

Mark Hamill Says Wife Kept Him From Leaving US After Trump Re-election

1 year ago

UK Rail Police Warn Violence Against Women Up 59% Since 2021

Britain

Crime

Culture

UK Rail Police Warn Violence Against Women Up 59% Since 2021

1 year ago

Britain

Automobile

Business

Tesla Halves UK Lease Prices After 60% July Sales Slide

1 year ago

Soccer

Sports

Newcastle Drop Isak Amid Standoff Over £110 Million Liverpool Offer

1 year ago

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Nov 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

288210499

OptionProbability

Zohran Mamdani

Other

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Mark Carney

James Talarico

Jon Ossoff

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Dario Amodei

Xi Jinping

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Benjamin Netanyahu

AOC

Marco Rubio

Vladimir Putin

Gavin Newsom

Jerome Powell

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Jensen Huang

Gen Z

Jeffrey Epstein

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Nicholas Maduro

Mark Zuckerberg

Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

Lisa Su

Fei-Fei Li

Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

Millenials

Gen X

Baby Boomers

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Scott Bessent

Sundar Pichai

Narendra Modi

Ursula von der Leyen

Jasmine Crockett

Graham Platner

Kevin Hassett

Gen Alpha

Claudia Sheinbaum

Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

Ahmed al-Sharaa

Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]

Bad Bunny

Kevin Warsh

Pete Hegseth

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7647518

OptionProbability

3.5-4 months

3-3.5 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

<3 months

>7 months

5-5.5 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41239768

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.11%chance

3437585

OptionVotes

YES

43079

2321

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

YES

2729

2049

Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2030?

Jan 30, 10:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.2%chance

14016764

OptionVotes

YES

3367

685

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Nov 21, 4:34 PMNov 28, 10:59 PM

6.94%chance

910734

OptionVotes

YES

20706

7842

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

YES

10938

8979

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

17.74%chance

52226

OptionVotes

YES

8092

5234

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.22%chance

192163

OptionVotes

YES

900

[400 mana bounty]What inexpensive things, if I buy, will I think was worth the time and money in terms of improving QOL?

Sep 29, 1:30 AMJan 1, 2:29 AM

341911

OptionProbability

Extra phone charger

Waterproof shower speaker

Premium shower head

Rechargeable motion-sensor LED light (for closets, hallways, or under the bed)

New pillow

Shoe horn

100

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

Mar 10, 7:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66%chance

29621

OptionVotes

YES

2161

1890

The Times News

Top stories

Prediction markets for The Times

Prediction markets for The Times

Prediction markets for The Times

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2030?

Will the Two-term presidential time limit be repealed before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

[400 mana bounty]What inexpensive things, if I buy, will I think was worth the time and money in terms of improving QOL?

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

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