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Prediction markets for the UK

Will Reform win the next UK election?

Aug 13, 11:58 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

35%chance

13995384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1493

816

[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58%chance

15767040

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7252

2143

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

7426233

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Other

2030

2024

2025

50

15

12

11

8

3

0

0

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.26%chance

2411233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11928

1118

Will the UK legalise marijuana by 2030?

Jan 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.09%chance

318338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16472

8308

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

15.45%chance

206717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2340

427

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.03%chance

235958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5866

4797

Which government will form after the next UK general election?

May 5, 12:22 AMJan 2, 1:21 AM

295877

OptionProbability

Reform minority

Labour minority

Conservatives + Reform coalition

Labour majority

Reform majority

Conservatives minority

Labour + Greens + Liberal Democrats coalition

Conservatives majority

Labour + Liberal Democrats coalition

Labour + Greens coalition

Other

Green + Liberal Democrats coalition

Labour + Reform coalition

Conservatives + Liberal Democrats coalition

Labour + Conservatives coalition

[invalid] Coalition of more than two parties

19

15

12

9

9

6

6

5

5

5

4

3

1

0

0

0

How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?

Mar 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

163107

OptionProbability

Above 15

8 - 10

5 - 7

11 - 15

0

1

2

3 - 4

46

21

13

12

2

2

2

2

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:56 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

26.12%chance

19749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

893

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:58 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

13550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

944

Will Wales decide to leave the UK by 2040?

Apr 2, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26%chance

15299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

390

222

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