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Prediction markets for the UK

Will Reform win the next UK election?

Aug 13, 11:58 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

45%chance

12992711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

1004

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

6020927

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Other

2030

2024

2025

55

13

11

11

9

1

0

0

[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.24%chance

6920060

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7102

2255

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.26%chance

2411233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11928

1118

Will the UK legalise marijuana by 2030?

Jan 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.98%chance

287608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16576

8290

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

15.45%chance

206717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2340

427

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.38%chance

195302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7655

4278

How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?

Mar 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

163107

OptionProbability

Above 15

8 - 10

5 - 7

11 - 15

0

1

2

3 - 4

46

21

13

12

2

2

2

2

Will the UK government mention quantum computing in an official policy speech within the next month?

Jan 30, 7:09 AMMar 2, 7:04 AM

50.09%chance

362014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1965

1625

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:56 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

26.12%chance

19749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

893

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:58 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

13550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

944

Will Wales decide to leave the UK by 2040?

Apr 2, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.14%chance

13264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

377

227

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