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Prediction markets for the UK

Will Reform win the next UK election?

Aug 13, 11:58 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

28.95%chance

14999593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1718

710

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.22%chance

2511293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11988

1114

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.56%chance

298424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8332

4125

Will the UK legalise marijuana by 2030?

Jan 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.01%chance

328414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16548

8295

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

5.22%chance

227665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4263

235

Will there be self driving taxis in London, UK by the end of 2026?

Aug 21, 7:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.74%chance

473944

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1422

317

How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?

Mar 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

173157

OptionProbability

Above 15

8 - 10

5 - 7

11 - 15

0

1

2

3 - 4

46

21

13

12

2

2

2

1

Will UK rejoin the European Union before 2050?

Feb 2, 12:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.5%chance

442650

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

901

Will any American citizen be extradited to the UK or elsewhere for free speech by 2040 end?

Aug 10, 8:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.45%chance

71416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:56 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

26.12%chance

19749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

893

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:58 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

13550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

944

Will Wales decide to leave the UK by 2040?

Apr 2, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26%chance

15299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

390

222

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