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Prediction markets for the UK

Will Reform win the next UK election?

Aug 13, 11:58 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

44%chance

11891532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

983

Will the UK introduce a wealth tax by end of 2025?

Jul 8, 11:29 AMDec 18, 11:59 PM

1.32%chance

11042579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31869

1146

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

5418441

OptionProbability

2026

2029

2027

2028

Other

2025

2030

2024

42

15

13

12

10

6

2

0

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.26%chance

2411233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11928

1118

Will the UK legalise marijuana by 2030?

Jan 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.98%chance

287608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16576

8290

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

18.03%chance

205817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2132

469

Will UK rejoin the European Union before 2050?

Feb 2, 12:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.61%chance

402305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

917

Will the UK ban smoking for future generations before the end of 2025?

Nov 2, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

231678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1883

176

Will any American citizen be extradited to the UK or elsewhere for free speech by 2040 end?

Aug 10, 8:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.45%chance

71416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:56 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

25%chance

17619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

876

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:58 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

13550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

944

Will Wales decide to leave the UK by 2040?

Apr 2, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26%chance

11229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

389

221

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