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Prediction markets for the US

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

125770743

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Saikat Chakrabarti

Connie Chan

Christine Pelosi

London Breed

Other

Bruce Lou

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

61

23

13

1

1

1

0

0

0

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47%chance

598586985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3387

1245

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

21%chance

319472489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

168119

72552

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

15787280

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

59

40

1

Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 5:32 PMJul 2, 4:59 AM

43.62%chance

15464788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10849

9257

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14134335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

Aug 11, 3:53 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

16.41%chance

6821620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22296

4846

Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?

Jan 31, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.38%chance

4612261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14371

6958

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4310153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Will the 2028 US Presidential election happen normally?

Nov 5, 11:09 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

66.34%chance

147204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13883

7280

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.38%chance

246824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15505

6450

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.1%chance

224428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10005

9976

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