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Prediction markets for the US

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1571330535

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

Saikat Chakrabarti

London Breed

Other

66

33

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.11%chance

619657288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5625

4094

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

19.6%chance

363599191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177358

70200

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

194149455

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

60

39

1

Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 5:32 PMJul 2, 4:59 AM

40.29%chance

16271170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11657

8674

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

Aug 11, 3:53 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

13.21%chance

6824805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25481

4296

Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?

Jan 31, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.18%chance

5014524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16518

6054

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.17%chance

2011549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18208

5492

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.38%chance

267484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15138

6606

Will the 2028 US Presidential election happen normally?

Nov 5, 11:09 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

66.51%chance

157268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13935

7254

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.11%chance

234441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10009

9973

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