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Prediction markets for The Workshop

Which of Zvi's favorite NYC restaurants and bakeries will close by 1 Feb 2028?

Jan 2, 4:25 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

111654

OptionProbability

Tortaria

Hunan Bistro

Joe's Pizza (14th + 3rd)

Mighty Quinn's BBQ (13th and 7th)

Hill Country

Carlotto

Dominic Ansel Workshop

BLT Prime (74th + Lexington)

Brooklyn Bagel & Coffee Company (25th + 8th)

Thai Villa

Bhatti Indian Grill

Brindle Room

Osteria Morini

Il Buco Alimentari & Vineria

Tao Downtown

Strip House (44th + 5th)

Keste Pizza

Magnolia Bakery (Bleecker Street)

Joe and Pat's NYC (10th + 1st)

Bourke Street Bakery (28th + Madison)

Prince Street Pizza

Dominic Ansel Kitchen

Au Za'atar

Rezdora

Da Umberto

Casa Mono

Xi'an's Famous Foods (15th and 8th)

The Donut Pub (both locations must close)

Dos Toros (two closest locations must close)

Scarpetta

Via Carota

Fogo De Chao (53rd Street)

The Halal Guys (14th + 2nd)

Japonica

Fiaschetteria "Pistoia" (both locations must close)

Eataly (23rd Street + 6th Avenue)

Naya (four closest locations must close)

Katz's Delicatessen

Shake Shack (OG in Madison Square Park)

98

98

73

52

48

46

31

30

29

29

29

29

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

27

27

27

26

26

26

26

24

24

21

21

21

21

20

19

18

18

16

12

Will a new play written by Tom Stoppard premier by the end of 2026?

Aug 4, 9:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.83%chance

51606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2606

384

Will "CFAR update, and New CFAR workshops" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 26, 3:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.61%chance

2600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

926

Will "Summary of our Workshop on Post-AGI Outcomes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 24, 5:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.09%chance

3306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

963

New Warhammer 40k Faction Before 2027?

Apr 9, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.31%chance

559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

Warhammer 40k new edition before 2027?

Apr 9, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.07%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

WillTelluride Neuromorphic Cognition Engineering Workshop run in 2026?

Jul 3, 6:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will I get ED CMU SCS 2026

Dec 17, 12:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Games Workshop's "The Old World" discontinued by 2027?

Apr 9, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.58%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Will I attend the High-throughput microplastic identification and analysis workshop in 2026?

Nov 12, 8:33 PM

30

Will the Predictor Effector Gene workshop include longevity as a trait/endpoint by EOY2027?

Oct 18, 5:39 PM

00

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