OptionProbability
People lose interest in it and stop using the site
Founders are disappointed in slow/no/negative growth and shut Manifold down.
Bought by a large corporation but later shut down for not being profitable
Not with a bang but a whimper
They go bankrupt
Shut down by the U.S. federal government
As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)
Outcompeted in the online marketplace
Other
Ship-of-Theseus'd into a new website
Bought by a large corporation & monetized to death
Overall bans on prediction markets by major governments
Manifold is eternal
Once big enough to be noticed, regulators either shut them down or hobble them into irrelevance
with thunderous applause
A lover's quarrel
Founders shut down Manifold due to community drama
Erotic auto-asphyxiation
will be dyed into a zebra pattern in black and grey
Heat death
destroyed by great hwan empire
14
11
9
8
7
6
5
3
1
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
368
266
