OptionProbability
Manifold is eternal
Bought by a large corporation but later shut down for not being profitable
People lose interest in it and stop using the site
They go bankrupt
Founders are disappointed in slow/no/negative growth and shut Manifold down.
Bought by a large corporation & monetized to death
Outcompeted in the online marketplace
Other
Ship-of-Theseus'd into a new website
Overall bans on prediction markets by major governments
Not with a bang but a whimper
Once big enough to be noticed, regulators either shut them down or hobble them into irrelevance
As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)
Shut down by the U.S. federal government
Heat death
with thunderous applause
Founders shut down Manifold due to community drama
Erotic auto-asphyxiation
will be dyed into a zebra pattern in black and grey
A lover's quarrel
destroyed by great hwan empire
17
12
9
7
6
5
4
3
1
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
368
266
