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Prediction markets for Thiel

Will Peter Thiel ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Jul 30, 1:59 AMAug 6, 3:59 AM

5.92%chance

638674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

911

Peter Thiel cuts a check to Donald Boat by March 2026?

Aug 15, 8:54 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

10.85%chance

132650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2867

349

Will Aiden Kim be a Thiel Fellow before 2028?

Oct 30, 5:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28%chance

71462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1611

628

Will an Atlas Fellow become a Thiel Fellow by 2027?

Mar 11, 2:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.87%chance

151390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

972

Will Peter Thiel ever be elected President?

Jan 13, 8:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3.76%chance

181268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

899

Will Peter Thiel be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 5:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.18%chance

22992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1482

927

Will Peter Thiel reference Manifold Markets by 2030?

Sep 15, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

38.27%chance

16987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

779

Will Andrew Gao become a Thiel fellow?

Feb 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.39%chance

13877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

981

Will Peter Thiel have regular bodyguards by EOY2032?

Sep 21, 6:57 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

86.87%chance

3160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

Peter Thiel on JRE again before 2027

Jun 16, 8:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.57%chance

670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

80

Will James Lin (@jlinbio) from Toronto win a Thiel Fellowship?

Jan 1, 5:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

86

Will Theodore Weld Smith of moda fund win a Thiel Fellowship

Apr 25, 4:59 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

25.67%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

54

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