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Prediction markets for Thiel

Will Peter Thiel ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Jul 30, 1:59 AMAug 6, 3:59 AM

5.68%chance

628671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

908

Peter Thiel cuts a check to Donald Boat by March 2026?

Aug 15, 8:54 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

10.99%chance

92591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2846

351

Will an Atlas Fellow become a Thiel Fellow by 2027?

Mar 11, 2:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.87%chance

151390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

972

Will Peter Thiel ever be elected President?

Jan 13, 8:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3.76%chance

181268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

899

Will Aiden Kim be a Thiel Fellow before 2028?

Oct 30, 5:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.79%chance

31127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1406

719

Will Peter Thiel be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 5:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.18%chance

22992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1482

927

Will Peter Thiel reference Manifold Markets by 2030?

Sep 15, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

38.27%chance

16987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

779

Will Andrew Gao become a Thiel fellow?

Feb 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.25%chance

12802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

969

Will Aubrey Darwin Niederhoffer become a Thiel Fellow before 2028?

Oct 30, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.53%chance

4704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1671

605

Will Peter Thiel have regular bodyguards by EOY2032?

Sep 21, 6:57 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

86.87%chance

3160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

Will Elon Musk die before Peter Thiel?

Apr 20, 10:40 PMApr 28, 6:59 AM

58.2%chance

964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

172

Will James Lin (@jlinbio) from Toronto win a Thiel Fellowship?

Jan 1, 5:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

86

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