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Prediction markets for Thiel

Will Peter Thiel ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Jul 30, 1:59 AMAug 6, 3:59 AM

5.6%chance

618670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

907

Will Peter thiel be charged with a felony by 2026.

Nov 28, 8:12 PMJan 1, 8:12 PM

5.02%chance

251493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2157

845

Will an Atlas Fellow become a Thiel Fellow by 2027?

Mar 11, 2:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.87%chance

151390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

972

Will Peter Thiel ever be elected President?

Jan 13, 8:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3.76%chance

181268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

899

Will Peter Thiel be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 5:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.18%chance

22992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1482

927

Will Peter Thiel reference Manifold Markets by 2030?

Sep 15, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.41%chance

15837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

884

Will Andrew Gao become a Thiel fellow?

Feb 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.25%chance

12802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

969

Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing gay pornography video of Elon Musk having sex with Peter Thiel by 2025?

Jan 1, 7:43 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

34.79%chance

15774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

855

Will AI finally generate an acceptable image of "Peter Thiel making out with, cuddling with, and incubating an egg together with a gay penguin" by 2025?

Jan 5, 4:48 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

84.79%chance

13267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

938

Will Alia Abbas become a Thiel Fellow?

Jan 12, 7:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.04%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

58

Will anyone from https://www.livetheresidency.com/ win the Thiel Fellowship in 2026?

Jun 21, 2:24 AMMay 1, 6:59 AM

64.03%chance

346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

10B valuation for company founded by a 2023 Thiel Fellow by 2030

Mar 23, 5:49 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

33.41%chance

323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

96

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