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Prediction markets for Thiel Fellowship

Will anyone from the Summer Program for Applied Rationality (SPARC) program win a Thiel Fellowship by 2026?

Apr 20, 10:54 PMApr 28, 6:59 AM

81.46%chance

101444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

97

Will a regular of c-Haus in Cambridge, MA (Lucas Chu's) win the Thiel Fellowship in 2024, 2025, or 2026?

Jan 3, 4:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.51%chance

8136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

61

Is the thiel fellowship the most beautiful thing in the world?

Jan 24, 4:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.55%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

81

Will anyone from https://www.livetheresidency.com/ win the Thiel Fellowship in 2026?

Jun 21, 2:24 AMMay 1, 6:59 AM

64.03%chance

346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

Will Arnav Shah win EITHER an Emergent Ventures or Thiel Fellowship by 2028?

Apr 21, 10:24 AMApr 29, 6:59 AM

41.35%chance

430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

100

Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027?

Apr 20, 10:44 PMNov 1, 8:01 AM

32.43%chance

329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

95

Will Jaival Patel win a Thiel Fellowship, Emergent Ventures, Brains Fellows, or Flux Capacitor funding by 2030?

Jun 10, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will James Lin (@jlinbio) from Toronto win a Thiel Fellowship?

Jan 1, 5:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

86

Will someone from the hacker house calculus.house win a thiel fellowship by EOY2027?

Jun 11, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will Theodore Weld Smith of moda fund win a Thiel Fellowship

Apr 25, 4:59 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

25.67%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

54

Will at least 50 percent of the inaugural thiel fellowship cohort get married by EOY 2027

Dec 17, 12:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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