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Prediction markets for Think Investments

Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars?

Oct 26, 7:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.24%chance

548733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2403

416

Will Sam Parr or Shaan Puri invest in my company?

Oct 8, 1:31 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

4.99%chance

105763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4362

229

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

1. Meta will begin charging for use of its Llama models.

Dec 27, 8:10 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

8.43%chance

394420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3296

303

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

52.64%chance

393991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

983

Is slowing down AGI good for AI safety? [resolves to poll]

Mar 26, 3:58 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

88.14%chance

321674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1988

751

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.58%chance

131631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1965

509

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

738

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Feb 20, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.15%chance

8656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

720

Will I get "canceled" for something I post on Twitter or Manifold by 2030?

Jan 10, 3:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.49%chance

19472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1407

899

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

If I investigate the Oliver Smith saga, will I think that Oliver was overall the more wronged party?

Feb 28, 7:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.92%chance

6266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

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