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Prediction markets for Think Investments

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.28%chance

244492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3573

281

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.72%chance

192798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2886

346

My manifold net worth in one year?

Aug 1, 8:35 PMAug 1, 8:25 PM

15725

OptionProbability

Above 1000

Above 2000

Above 4000

Above 8000

95

92

83

82

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

738

Will I get "canceled" for something I post on Twitter or Manifold by 2030?

Jan 10, 3:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.49%chance

19472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1407

899

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

If I investigate the Oliver Smith saga, will I think that Oliver was overall the more wronged party?

Feb 28, 7:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.92%chance

6266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Edward Gaming [LOL stock]

Mar 17, 3:44 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

80.22%chance

351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

45

KT Rolster [LOL stock]

Mar 17, 4:34 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

64.58%chance

651

OptionVotes

NO

YES

85

58

LGD Gaming [LOL stock]

Mar 17, 3:47 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

70

36

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