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Prediction markets for Think Investments

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.28%chance

264385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3328

300

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

894

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

738

Will I get "canceled" for something I post on Twitter or Manifold by 2030?

Jan 10, 3:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.3%chance

20597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1532

881

If I investigate the Oliver Smith saga, will I think that Oliver was overall the more wronged party?

Feb 28, 7:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.92%chance

6266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Hanwha Life Esports [LOL stock]

Mar 17, 4:34 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

91.18%chance

3155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225

22

Fnatic [LOL stock]

Mar 17, 3:38 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

26.35%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

90

FlyQuest [LOL stock]

Mar 17, 3:41 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

69.23%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

33

Cloud9 [LOL stock]

Mar 17, 3:40 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

60

42

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