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Prediction markets for Think Investments

Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars?

Oct 26, 7:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.41%chance

528613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2419

413

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

1. Meta will begin charging for use of its Llama models.

Dec 27, 8:10 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

26.86%chance

342895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1650

606

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

42%chance

372766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

796

Is slowing down AGI good for AI safety? [resolves to poll]

Mar 26, 3:58 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

83.38%chance

311174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1488

832

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

738

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Feb 20, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.66%chance

7639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

728

Immortals [LOL stock]

Mar 17, 3:41 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

33.79%chance

3511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

70

36

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will I get "canceled" for something I post on Twitter or Manifold by 2030?

Jan 10, 3:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.6%chance

18372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1307

915

If I investigate the Oliver Smith saga, will I think that Oliver was overall the more wronged party?

Feb 28, 7:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.92%chance

6266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

How many growth/marketing pomodoros before Emile.chat crosses >=$200 monthly recurring revenue?

Oct 10, 7:50 PMJan 11, 5:59 AM

80.04%chance

313

OptionProbability

YES

NO

651

594

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