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Prediction markets for Thinking Labs

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

Aug 2, 4:38 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

4287203

OptionProbability

Perplexity

Mistral

Cohere

Hugging Face

Thinking Machines Lab

Anthropic

15

9

8

7

5

3

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

143923

OptionProbability

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

DeepSeek

Alibaba (Qwen)

Z.ai

Mistral

Nvidia

Cohere (Command R+)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

Thinking Machines Lab

Reka AI

NexusFlow (Athene)

01 AI (Yi)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

100

100

100

100

100

82

82

78

40

31

22

22

22

18

16

11

10

Will the solid-state (Donut) Verge motorcycle be delivered under a non-disclosure agreement?

Mar 21, 12:20 AMAug 1, 12:10 AM

47.39%chance

43782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

949

will a paper released before 2030 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 22, 6:12 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

75.48%chance

212704

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1754

570

Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence?

Aug 18, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.75%chance

14638

OptionVotes

NO

YES

358

28

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.87%chance

21620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

842

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen within the next 50 years?

Jan 5, 10:23 AM

210

How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen within the next 20 years?

Jan 5, 10:21 AM

220

How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen within the next 10 years?

Jan 5, 10:20 AM

290

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