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Prediction markets for Thinking Labs

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

Aug 2, 4:38 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

3858217

OptionProbability

Perplexity

Mistral

Cohere

Hugging Face

Anthropic

Thinking Machines Lab

28

15

14

9

5

5

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.62%chance

8132937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22319

3938

will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 5, 5:38 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.3%chance

323706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1866

536

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

75.4%chance

152818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1751

571

will a paper released before 2030 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 22, 6:12 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

78.72%chance

202654

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1923

520

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72632

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Alibaba (Qwen)

Z.ai

DeepSeek

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

Mistral

Nvidia

Thinking Machines Lab

01 AI (Yi)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

Cohere (Command R+)

Reka AI

NexusFlow (Athene)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

99

98

80

76

73

71

50

33

31

31

22

22

21

18

16

11

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66%chance

20570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

792

Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence?

Aug 18, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.06%chance

13510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

44

How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen within the next 50 years?

Jan 5, 10:23 AM

210

How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen within the next 10 years?

Jan 5, 10:20 AM

290

How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen within the next 20 years?

Jan 5, 10:21 AM

220

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