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Prediction markets for Thinking Labs

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28379

3002

How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns?

Sep 10, 8:16 AMOct 3, 6:59 AM

7836816

OptionProbability

1+ OpenAI employees resign

2+ Anthropic employees resign

2+ OpenAI employees resign

3+ Anthropic employees resign

3+ OpenAI employees resign

4+ Anthropic employees resign

4+ OpenAI employees resign

5+ Anthropic employees resign

5+ OpenAI employees resign

48

45

24

22

18

12

11

7

6

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

215995

OptionProbability

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

DeepSeek

Z.ai

Mistral

Thinking Machines Lab

Nvidia

Cohere (Command R+)

Reka AI

NexusFlow (Athene)

01 AI (Yi)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

100

100

100

100

100

62

58

41

39

36

17

9

5

4

4

4

2

Will the solid-state (Donut) Verge motorcycle be delivered under a non-disclosure agreement?

Mar 21, 12:20 AMJan 2, 1:10 AM

12.42%chance

65384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2656

377

will a paper released before 2030 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 22, 6:12 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

77.46%chance

232805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1854

539

Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence?

Aug 18, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

161793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.87%chance

21620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

842

How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen within the next 10 years?

Jan 5, 10:20 AM

290

How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen within the next 50 years?

Jan 5, 10:23 AM

210

How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen within the next 20 years?

Jan 5, 10:21 AM

220

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