Thinking Machines News

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

xAI IPO

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

OpenAI releases GPT-6

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

Anthropic IPO

My median ASI timelines will shorten

Grok 5 will be released

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

Google will outperform the S&P

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

SSI will release a product

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

An LLM will beat me at chess

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

OpenAI IPO

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

Grok 6 will be released

Anthropic releases Claude 6

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

Anthropic will release an image/video model

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e26 FLOP

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

SSI IPO

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

Muse Spark 1.2 (or any Meta model)

Qwen 3.8 (or any Qwen model)

GLM-5.x (or any GLM model)

Deepseek V4 Pro GA (or any Deepseek model)

Grok 4.x

Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash

Claude Fable 5.x

Claude Haiku 5.x

Claude Sonnet 5.x

GPT-5.7

TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)

Kimi K3.x (or any Kimi model)

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash-Lite

GPT-6

Claude Opus 5.x

Title of the movie is "Dune: Part Three"

Announced in 2024

Music composed by Hans Zimmer

One or more characters who died in the first two films are cloned/appear in the film as clones (or gholas)

Paul Atreides sits on a throne

Rated PG-13

Denis Villeneuve credited as Producer, Director, and Writer

IMDB rating over 8.1 one week after release

Guild Navigator shown (not fully obscured by suit or tank)

Released in 2026

Thinking machines directly referenced ("artificial intelligence", "machine in the likeness of a human mind", etc. counts as yes)

3 or more sand worms are on screen simultaneously

Mentat does an eye-flick calculation

At least one birth depicted on screen

Runtime over 2h 45m

At least three characters who died in the first two movies are depicted on-screen (can be flashback, spice dream, etc)

5 or more sand worms are on screen simultaneously

A named character will be cast as a different gender to their book gender (other than ones who appeared in previous movies eg Liet Kynes)

Runtime between 2h 30m and 2h 45m inclusive

Alia depicted on-screen as a toddler (not infant and obviously <6yo)

Hitler mentioned by name

Runtime under 2h 30m

The word "jihad" (not "holy war" or similar) is used

"Butlerian jihad" mentioned by name

”Messiah” is in the movie title

An actor for a named character is replaced by a different actor

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

DeepSeek

Z.ai

Mistral

Thinking Machines Lab

Nvidia

Cohere (Command R+)

Reka AI

NexusFlow (Athene)

01 AI (Yi)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

NO

YES

NVIDIA

DeepMind

Other

OpenAI

Anthropic

Microsoft

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Meta

Google

xAI

Safe Superintelligence Inc

None (No AI labs exist)

Amazon

US Government

Thinking Machines

Stability AI

Tesla

Keen

CommaAI

Conjecture

Baidu

Apple

Comma

Midjourney

NO

YES

$30 Billion

$50 Billion

$100 Billion

NO

6 - 10

1 - 5

11 - 15

16 - 20

21 - 25

26 - 30