Thinking Machines News

Hugging Face

Perplexity

Mistral

Cohere

Thinking Machines Lab

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

xAI IPO

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

Anthropic IPO

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI

Google will outperform the S&P

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

OpenAI releases GPT-6

OpenAI IPO

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

My median ASI timelines will shorten

Grok 5 will be released

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

An LLM will beat me at chess

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

Anthropic releases Claude 6

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

SSI will release a product

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Grok 6 will be released

Anthropic will release an image/video model

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e26 FLOP

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

SSI IPO

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

Magic: The Gathering

Cult of the Lamb

Death's Door

Shift Happens

Baba is You

Understand

The Witness

Hollow Knight

It Takes Two

Unravel Two

Portal 2

Braid

Portal

Superliminal

The Talos Principle

The Talos Principle 2

Antichamber

Perspective

Portal Reloaded

Portal Stories: Mel

Thinking with Time Machine

Cell Machine

Bokura

Hades

Hades 2

Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes

Superhot

Slay the Princess

Mind over Magnet

Escape Academy

blue prince

Pico Park 2

Viewfinder

Silksong

Baba Is You XTREME

The Room

Pico Park

Wargroove

Patrick's Parabox

Q.U.B.E. 2

Q.U.B.E.

The Stanley Parable

Noita

Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A

Stardew Valley

Outer Wilds

Splendor (tabletop game)

We Were Here Too

Mini Motorways

Don't Starve

Papers Please

Doki Doki Literature Club!

We Were Here

Castle Crashers

scarlet hollow

Terraria

Chants of Sennaar

Patch Quest

Minecraft

Wild Woods

Manifold Garden

We Were Here Forever

Goragoa

Subnauticta

We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip

Baldur's Gate 3

Clandestine

Nobody Saves the World

Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime

Split Fiction

Rayman Legends

LittleBigPlanet 3

Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light

Bean and nothingness

Space Station 13

Nomifactory

Monifactory

Rebirth of the Night

Induction

Akane

Morrowind

going under: internships are heck

Animal Well

English Country Tune

English Country Tune

Satisfactory

Expedition 33

Quantum Conundrum

Stoneshard

Final Fantasy Tactics (original)

Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced

Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced 2

Octopath Travel

Project Triangle Strategy

Sokosoko

Physics-Breaking Boxes

Inbox Unbox

Linelith

Boxing Up Bamboo

Frog Wizard Gem Quest

The Vacuum Cleaner in the Room

Clockwork Cat

salt and sactuary

From Muddled to Clean

Path to Nowhere

Arknights

Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten

Lorelei and the Laser Eyes

A Monster's Expedition

Lingo

Solas 128

Gentoo Rescue

Ugly

Toki Tori 2+

Veggie Quest: The Puzzle Game

Isles of Sea and Sky

Chroma Zero

Paquerette

Riven

Baba Files Taxes

Baba Is Quiz

A Solitaire Mystery

IT'S A BLOCK-PUSHING GAME

Leaf's Odyssey

Submachine

LOK Digital

Leap Year

Recursed

Fever Meme

Passant: A Chess Roguelike

tetr.io (quickplay duos)

Taiji

Crawl

Corekeeper

Emberknights

Sworn

Jumpspace

Gloomhaven

Mountain Peak

A Way Out

The Past Within

How 2 Escape

All You Need is Help

Melbits World

Parallel Experiment

Superbugs: Awaken

Tick Tock: A Tale for Two

Tristoy

Unboxing the Cryptic Killer

Tetris Effect

Pushmo

World of Goo

The Swapper

Papers, Please

The Séance of Blake Manor

Fugitive (board/card game)

Codenames Duet (card game)

Pandemic (boardgame)

Fugitive (board/card game)

Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward

Moonlighter

Myst

We Were Here Together

Hyperrogue

Void Stranger

PEAK

Exploding kittens

Sackboy: A Big Adventure

Arc Raiders

Unstable Unicorns 🦄

Mario Party

Magicka

Yume Nikki

The House of DaVinci

Tunic

Moving Out

Moving Out

Timberborn

Trine 2

A Couple Of Cubes

Root (tabletop or digital version)

Children of Morta

Rainworld

Deadly Rooms of Death

Fez

CrossCode

Cocoon

Islands of Insight

Monopoly

USSR Simulator (https://flowlab.io/game/play/1151923) (trash but still)

SteamWorld Dig

Snakebird

Chess

Slay the Spire

Among Us

Beyond: Two Souls

Stephen's Sausage Roll

Amazing Chicken Adventures

Spiritfarer

Wingspan

Can of Wormholes

Disco Elysium

Overcooked

Return of the Obra Dinn

Inscryption

Slice and Dice

Glider (1988)

Teardown

Human: Fall Flat

Tokimeki Memorial

999

Detroit: Become Human

Zero Time Dilemma

Astroneer

What Remains of Edith Finch

Advance Wars

Title of the movie is "Dune: Part Three"

Announced in 2024

Music composed by Hans Zimmer

One or more characters who died in the first two films are cloned/appear in the film as clones (or gholas)

Paul Atreides sits on a throne

Rated PG-13

Denis Villeneuve credited as Producer, Director, and Writer

IMDB rating over 8.1 one week after release

Guild Navigator shown (not fully obscured by suit or tank)

Released in 2026

Thinking machines directly referenced ("artificial intelligence", "machine in the likeness of a human mind", etc. counts as yes)

3 or more sand worms are on screen simultaneously

Mentat does an eye-flick calculation

At least one birth depicted on screen

Runtime over 2h 45m

At least three characters who died in the first two movies are depicted on-screen (can be flashback, spice dream, etc)

5 or more sand worms are on screen simultaneously

A named character will be cast as a different gender to their book gender (other than ones who appeared in previous movies eg Liet Kynes)

Runtime between 2h 30m and 2h 45m inclusive

Alia depicted on-screen as a toddler (not infant and obviously <6yo)

Hitler mentioned by name

Runtime under 2h 30m

The word "jihad" (not "holy war" or similar) is used

"Butlerian jihad" mentioned by name

”Messiah” is in the movie title

An actor for a named character is replaced by a different actor

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

DeepSeek

Alibaba (Qwen)

Z.ai

Nvidia

Mistral

Thinking Machines Lab

Reka AI

Cohere (Command R+)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

NexusFlow (Athene)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

YES

Anthropic

DeepMind

Other

OpenAI

Safe Superintelligence Inc

Meta

Google

xAI

Alibaba

None (No AI labs exist)

US Government

Thinking Machines

Stability AI

Tesla

Keen

CommaAI

Conjecture

Baidu

Amazon

Apple

Microsoft

Comma

NVIDIA

Midjourney

DeepSeek

YES

NO

$30 Billion

$50 Billion

$100 Billion

6 - 10

1 - 5

11 - 15

16 - 20

21 - 25

26 - 30

Safe Super Intelligence