Third Point News

Lionel Messi to score at least one goal

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200

The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals

VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions

Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage

USA survives group stage

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300

10+ goals in any match

2+ red cards in any match

2+ European countries reach top 4

Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row

The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals

Goal from last kick of the game

Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal

3+ penalty shootout

Mexico survives group stage

Canada survives group stage

The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner

South American team reaches semi-final

3+ red cards in any match

6+ yellow cards in any match

Red card issued for mouth covering

Team with 0 wins in Group Stage

Black player gets the red card

Player throws captains armband

Bicycle kick attempt

Team scores after being down to 10 men

Both teams score in stoppage time

Player scores against country of birth/heritage

Player bleeding on camera during match

Team loses possession from delay throw-in

15+ minutes of the stoppage time

Champion is unbeaten

USA player gets the red card

Disruption at Iran match

A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.

Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption

Player scores a hat-trick

Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)

Over 289.5 total goals scored*

Over 9.5 own goals scored

Over 10.5 red cards

Spain goes further than France

Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match

Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage

US scores in every single group stage match

Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)

Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match

Bottle thrown on field

Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)

Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer

Team finishes match with 9 players

25+ people arrested at stadium

French-born player scores against France

Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded

3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup

Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)

Goal scored directly from a free-kick

A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament

Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)

Champion is a first place group stage winner

First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved

Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet

Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals

Trump still alive at end of final match

“Puto” chant at match

Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor

Referee falls down

Match has a dedicated moment of silence

Any host places 1st in their group

Curaçao scores a goal

Haaland scores over 3.5 goals

Messi scores a goal at 39 years old

Both players in this photo* play each other in a match

Fan hospitalized for heat related illness

Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined

Trump attends match

Neymar plays in a match

Player dies during World Cup

Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands

An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag

A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)

At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal

Player tears their ACL

Players cleat falls off their foot

Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match

gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury

Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)

Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?

Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan

Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?

Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?

Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick

Cape Verde scores a goal

Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?

Messi to score a free kick

Ronaldo to cry at the world cup

Team loses after leading 2-0

Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats

World Cup winner to never trail in a match

Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds

Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match

Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)

Vorzinha concedes a goal by Argentina player in regular play

First team to lead goes through in 24+ knockout matches? (penalties count)

This World Cup Market reaches 500 traders

Gianni Infantino travels more than 50K miles during the tournament by airplane

Short Fuse: The Netherlands - Morocco ends in penalties

Any match is 0-0 going into penalty shootouts

Panenka penalty to be scored

Player scores 8+ goals

Player gets a straight red card in Round of 16

A team scores 4 goals in a knockout round game

A team loses after scoring 3 unanswered goals

Spain scores 3 or more goals against Austria [Short Fuse]

An even number of games go to a shootout

Any team scores 4 unanswered goals in a knockout stage match

Flash Market: No goals in 2nd half stoppage time today (July 3 - last three Rd of 32 games)

More goals scored in 3rd Place Match than in the Final (excluding penalty shootouts)

England v Mexico Match on July 5 rescheduled to a different time? (Currently scheduled 6pm local time)

Mexicans mess with England team before match in the any way (fireworks, beeping, delays)

Paraguay is playing undeniably the Haramball tonight

German Freddy back on the twitter (formerly known as the x) before end of final

In quarterfinals, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games

team that wins bronze has more goals across tournament than both gold and silver

Infantino and Trump sitting next to each other at any match

Player scores 2+ goals in a match (QF)

Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (QF)

Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (QF)

A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (QF)

USA strikes Iran anytime from start of quarterfianals to ending of them

Trump flies in the Qatari Air Force One to final

Paraguayan Senator Celeste Amarilla goes on another rant about Mbappe before end of final

France, Spain, England & Argentina all go to Half Finales

Mikel Merino finishes the World Cup with more or the same number of goals as Lamine Yamal

A French player leaves the field injured against Spain (like Mendes and Courtois)

Goal scored in stoppage time (SF)

Over 3.5 goals scored (SF)

Goal scored from a header (SF)

Goal is disallowed for offside (SF)

Team wins by exactly 1 goal (SF)

Mitch McConnell alive for entire final match?

match

Over 4.5 goals in semi finals

Substitute scores in semi finals

Spain ball posession under 55.5% in semi final

Ball hits the woodwork in semi final match

English fans acting unruly before, during or after Argentina match

Both England and Argentina score a goal in the semifinal

Both Teams to Score Argentina/ England in 90minutes plus stoppage time. (Not Extra time)

Match ends in a draw in regular time (F)

Final combined match score is an odd number (F)

Goal is disallowed for offside (F)

Team wins by exactly 1 goal (F)

Match is won in extra-time (F)

Goalkeeper ends match with a clean sheet (F)

Substitute scores a goal (F)

Match ends 0-0 in regular time (F)

Spain first to score (F)

Match is tied at halftime (F)

First yellow card given to Argentina (F)

Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (F)

Trump touches in any way the Messi at final match/stadium

Argentinian player leaves injured in the final (like Mendes, Courtois and Saliba)

Score 0-0 in first part of extra time

Spain wins

Argentina lose Spain

World Cup team coach resigns or is fired before end of July (after final)

Asian player gets the red card

FIFA’s official total revenue for the 2023-2026 cycle exceed $16.billion

The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner

Asian player misses penalty kick

USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further

A penalty shootout to decide the Final match

No red cards issued in the Final match

Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot

An African nation to reach the Semi-finals

5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)

15+ cards in any match

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400

Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick

Goal scored within 1st minute

Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match

Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match

20+ penalty goals

30+ penalty goals

Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match

Asia team reaches semi final

The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists

Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs

Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament

Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament

Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours

Player bit during match

Bald person gets the red card

Football is coming home?

Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant

Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)

Headbutt during match

Laser pointer on goalie during match

Someone escorted off field shirtless

Player gets spat on during match

Ronaldo gets in referee face

England loses on penalties

More own goals than red cards in tourney

VAR overturns second yellow card

Player walks off pitch protesting referee

Player shits in the pants during match

The Netherlands does not survive group stage

Confirmed case of Ebola at the match

Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing

Trump attends 3 or more games

All 3 host countries win the opener

ICE makes a capture at the stadium

Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness

Smoke bomb during match in USA

Flares in stands during match in USA

Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match

Elon Musk attends match

Betting scandal reported

Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match

All 48 teams score at least 1 goal

Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)

Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)

Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)

Over 395.5 yellow cards

Any host nation in quarter final

US goes further than Mexico

Canada goes further than US

Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)

Goal scored from own half

Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)

Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal

Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)

A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message

Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands

Team captain gets red card

Ronaldo scores before Messi

Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer

All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage

Team gets removed or disqualified

Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards

2 UEFA teams in final

Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup

Any match is canceled or postponed

Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player

Team wins a match without making a single substitution

Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits

Both teams in final have red on their flag

Team finishes third in group and makes it to final

Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal

Final features a team that has never made it to the final before

Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt

Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card

Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds

Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament

Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved

Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match

Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline

Fans invade field during match

Major security incident

Animal (not birdy) is on field during match

Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo

Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium

Match is forfeited

Bonnie Blue attending a match

4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match

Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break

Salt Bae attending a match

King Charles attends match

Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)

Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match

Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium

Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament

USA plays Iran

Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)

Ronaldo does jerkin move

Trump dancing at match

Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties

A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner

The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds

6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage

Player suffers cardiac arrest

Winning team has a foreign manager

Omar Artan is at a World Cup match

Another match with 3+ red cards

Players / members of team attempt to defect

A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points

Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage

Freddy attends the final match

Freddy shown during a match broadcast

Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room

Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?

Messi gets a yellow card

Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)

Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final

German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt

Messi scores on every game he plays

Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?

Haaland scores on every game he plays

Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant

Champion is a first time World Cup winner

Ronaldo does not start

Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average

Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match

Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs

Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)

World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage

Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?

5+ hat tricks

Messi scores more goals than Mbappe

Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds

Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)

Over 14.5 own goals scored

Golden Glove Winner wears Senda, Rinat, RG, Voit or Adidas brand glove

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 310

Emmanuel Macron attends match

The Netherlands reaches half-final

16+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals inc. Extra Time (no Penalties)

17+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals - Regular time only!

France becomes finalist

France, Mexico, and Argentina all make it to the quarter finals

Belgium plays against The Netherlands

Of 5 competing continents, Europe has highest survival % in round of 32

16+ Knockout Stage Clean Sheets (0–0 after ET counts as 2)

Short Fuse: Germany scores 3 or more goals against Paraguay

FIFA officially apologizes or announces a general review of the VAR system following Germany’s disallowed goal vs Paraguay

Messi scores a goal in every match Argentina plays in

Overall penalty conversion rate to be 66.67% or higher ( all penalties no matter when)

Norway becomes finalist

Panenka penalty to be bottled

Three straight games going to penalties

Messi scores a goal in penalty shootout

Any team gets to penalty shootout and doesn't score a goal

Player with 9 or more assists

Enock Kabwende shown during broadcast

Announcer says Doctor Congo during 7/1 match broadcast

Any Trump attending BIH v USA match

Lead (or tied lead) goal scorer is on the team that wins the World Cup

World Cup winner won at least 2 games by shootout

A host country reaches the semi-finals

Belgium becomes finalist

Croatia gets a red card against Portugal [Short Fuse]

In knockouts, more teams with red cards WIN their matches

Round of 16 Special: „My vision, my rules“ - Referee sticks to original (no) Penalty, Goal or Red Card decision after On-Field Review

🇦🇷 ARG vs CPV 🇨🇻 – ARG wins both halves and scores more than three times as many goals as CPV

Own goal is scored (Rof16)

Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (Rof16)

Ronaldo scores a non-penalty kick goal (Rof16)

Team wins by exactly two goals (Rof16)

Mbappe doing the dictator point

Red card in CAN v MAR?

In round of 16, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games

3 continents reach semifinals

France's appeal successfully overturns Michael Olise's yellow card before the quarter-finals kickoff

Player doing lip trill shown in slow motion during final match broadcast on FOX

Trump attending the USA Belgium match

Trump takes credit for USA win within 1 day

Trump mentioned during USA BEL Fox broadcast today

Pitch Invader during USA BEL match today

Frances' tournament ends before Graham Platner drops out of Maine Senate race

"Is the TV broken?": There will be 4 or more On-Field Reviews (OFR) from the Quarterfinals onwards

"Shocking decision, Ref!": Any goal disallowed by VAR in the Quarterfinals AND any goal disallowed by VAR in the Semifinals (according to ESPN)

There will be a single leader in the Golden Boot ranking after the Quarterfinals (no tiebreak applies)

Norway player displays the flu like symptoms during match

Match ends 0-0 in regular time (QF)

Own goal is scored (QF)

Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (QF)

Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (QF)

Announcer says "Tom Brady" during France v Morocco

Player gets straight red card (QF)

Trump picks team he is supporting to win for the final game

Sam Altman attends final

JD Vance attends final

Morrocans stealing the towels or water bottles during game

Any Morrocan gets the red card

Morocco player picks up a ball during France possession 3+ times

France player picks up a ball during Morocco possession 3+ times

Shirtless player on field during match (QF)

Messi misses another penalty shot - includes shootout (QF-F)

Messi subbed out before the end of a match he played in (QF-F)

[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (SF)

Player scores 2+ goals in a match (SF)

Over 0.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (SF)

Match ends 0-0 in regular time (SF)

All teams score 1+ goals (SF)

Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)

Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (SF)

Own goal is scored (SF)

Player gets a straight red card (SF)

A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (SF)

Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (SF)

Shirtless player on field during match (SF)

Match is won in extra-time (SF)

Yellow card given for simulation (SF)

Harry Kane scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)

Bellingham gets yellow card (SF)

Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (SF)

Strait of Hormuz open at start of final match?

Over 17.5 corners in semi finals

Mbappe & Oyarzabal to record 2+ shots on target in semi final

Gavi shown card in semi final

Otamendi shown card in semi final

Anything occurring to make it historical final

The market creator deems the result of the final to have been swayed by bias from the referee

Two different players with the same jersey number score in the final

Mbappé leads Golden Boot race after 3rd place match & Messi overtakes in Final to win the Award

Mbappé less than 60 mins on the pitch in Consolation Final 3./4.

Sore Losers: Any player or official from the losing team to instantly remove or reject their silver medal after the Final

Own goal is scored (F)

Intruder on field during match (F)

Goal scored in stoppage time (F)

Over 2.5 goals scored (F)

Player scores 2+ goals in a match (F)

Penalty kick missed during regular/extra time (F)

Goal scored from a header (F)

A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (F)

Player gets a straight red card (F)

Penalty kick is given in 2nd half (F)

Argentina last to score (F)

[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (F)

Goal scored within the last 15 minutes (F)

Match ends 1-1 in regular time (F)

Final score is 1-2 or 2-1 (F)

Match ends with penalty shoot-out (F)

Winning team has lower total ball possession (F)

Both teams score 1+ goals in 2nd half (F)

Goal is scored from outside the penalty box (F)

Over 1.5 goals scored (F)

All teams score 1+ goals (F)

First yellow card in 2nd half given to Spain (F)

Goal scored in first 15 minutes of 2nd half (F)

Argentina first to score in 2nd half (F)

No yellow cards given in 1st half (F)

Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (F)

Yellow card given for simulation (F)

Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (F)

Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (F)

Argentina gets a penalty in regular time in the finals

Banner referencing historical territorial dispute visible during final or 3rd place match

"Albiceleste Cardiac Arrest": Argentina scores the game's final goal from 75' onward to win or force extra time (F)

"Pessi's Redemption": Messi scores a penalty and wins the Golden Boot

Javier Milei tweets VLLC or "Viva la libertad carajo" before the winning captain lifts the trophy (F)

The final score in the final is an internet certified funny number e.g. 2-1, 6-7, 6-9, 4-20 (ascending and descending order allowed)

Score 0-0 in second part of extra time

YES

YES

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

Meta

Amazon

Microsoft

SpaceXAi

Reddit

Bytedance

OpenAI

Anthropic

Discord

NO

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES