Third Point News

YES

YES

Lionel Messi to score at least one goal

Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage

USA survives group stage

2+ red cards in any match

Goal from last kick of the game

Mexico survives group stage

3+ red cards in any match

6+ yellow cards in any match

Red card issued for mouth covering

Black player gets the red card

Bicycle kick attempt

Team scores after being down to 10 men

Both teams score in stoppage time

Player scores against country of birth/heritage

Player bleeding on camera during match

Team loses possession from delay throw-in

Player scores a hat-trick

Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match

Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match

Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)

Team finishes match with 9 players

French-born player scores against France

Goal scored directly from a free-kick

A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament

Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals

“Puto” chant at match

Referee falls down

Any host places 1st in their group

Curaçao scores a goal

Haaland scores over 3.5 goals

Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands

At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal

gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury

Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick

Cape Verde scores a goal

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200

Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal

Canada survives group stage

Team with 0 wins in Group Stage

Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan

3+ penalty shootout

Trump still alive at end of final match

The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals

Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer

Fan hospitalized for heat related illness

20+ penalty goals

Over 9.5 own goals scored

Over 10.5 red cards

Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined

Trump attends match

Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match

Players cleat falls off their foot

Neymar plays in a match

Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?

Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded

A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)

US scores in every single group stage match

Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)

Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet

VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions

South American team reaches semi-final

Champion is unbeaten

Bottle thrown on field

Champion is a first place group stage winner

Ronaldo to cry at the world cup

Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)

2+ European countries reach top 4

Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row

Asian player misses penalty kick

Messi scores a goal at 39 years old

Ronaldo gets in referee face

Messi gets a yellow card

Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match

Any host nation in quarter final

Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt

Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)

Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?

The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner

Team loses after leading 2-0

5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)

Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament

No red cards issued in the Final match

A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.

US goes further than Mexico

Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing

Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?

The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner

Freddy attends the final match

Both teams in final have red on their flag

Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)

Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage

Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits

Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick

Over 289.5 total goals scored*

Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match

Someone escorted off field shirtless

More own goals than red cards in tourney

Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament

Elon Musk attends match

Asian player gets the red card

USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further

15+ minutes of the stoppage time

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300

Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)

Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness

A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message

Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match

Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium

2 UEFA teams in final

Player tears their ACL

Messi to score a free kick

Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours

Flares in stands during match in USA

Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor

Spain goes further than France

Laser pointer on goalie during match

Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup

Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match

Goal scored within 1st minute

Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved

VAR overturns second yellow card

Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption

Any match is canceled or postponed

The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals

30+ penalty goals

USA player gets the red card

Disruption at Iran match

Betting scandal reported

Canada goes further than US

Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal

3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup

Match has a dedicated moment of silence

Ronaldo does not start

Team captain gets red card

Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?

6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage

Winning team has a foreign manager

Bald person gets the red card

Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass

Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match

Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)

Over 395.5 yellow cards

Both players in this photo* play each other in a match

Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)

A penalty shootout to decide the Final match

Fans invade field during match

Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final

Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match

Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs

World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage

Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)

First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved

Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties

Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs

Smoke bomb during match in USA

Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player

Messi scores on every game he plays

The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists

Player gets spat on during match

25+ people arrested at stadium

Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo

Salt Bae attending a match

Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)

Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards

Freddy shown during a match broadcast

England loses on penalties

Final features a team that has never made it to the final before

Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline

Animal (not birdy) is on field during match

An African nation to reach the Semi-finals

ICE makes a capture at the stadium

Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)

Goal scored from own half

Haaland scores on every game he plays

Player throws captains armband

Headbutt during match

Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match

Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?

Champion is a first time World Cup winner

Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average

Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)

All 48 teams score at least 1 goal

Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)

Another match with 3+ red cards

Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage

Asia team reaches semi final

Football is coming home?

Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands

All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage

Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament

King Charles attends match

Player walks off pitch protesting referee

Trump attends 3 or more games

Team wins a match without making a single substitution

Major security incident

Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?

German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt

15+ cards in any match

Player bit during match

Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer

Bonnie Blue attending a match

Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot

Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)

Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)

Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium

Match is forfeited

Trump dancing at match

The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds

10+ goals in any match

An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag

Team gets removed or disqualified

Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament

The Netherlands does not survive group stage

Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal

Team finishes third in group and makes it to final

Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card

USA plays Iran

Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)

Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400

Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant

Player shits in the pants during match

Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds

Omar Artan is at a World Cup match

Players / members of team attempt to defect

Confirmed case of Ebola at the match

Ronaldo does jerkin move

A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner

Player suffers cardiac arrest

A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points

Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)

Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match

Player dies during World Cup

Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant

All 3 host countries win the opener

Ronaldo scores before Messi

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

NO

NO

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES