Thomas Kœgler News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

New James Bond actor is presented

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Approval < 35%

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

trump gets hospitalized

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Fair elections in 2028

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

USA experiences a recession.

Vances have another kid

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Dow rises above 65,000

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

US national bitcoin reserve created

Trump visits Africa

Congress overrides a presidential veto

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

A major war in Asia occurs

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Joe Biden dies

Trump says a racial slur

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Trump and Obama shake hands

Tesla

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

New national park created

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Repeal obamacare

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

The department of education gets desolved

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Anthony Fauci is indicted

JD Vance elected President

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

War is declared against another nation

10% fewer government agencies

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Trump gets covid (again)

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Approval < 25%

American Manned Lunar Landing

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump gets shot

54 or more Republican senate seats

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Record level unemployment

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump dies

Another pandemic

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump runs for a third term

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Cannabis is federally legalized

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump is assassinated

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump loses the fake tan

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump is seen shirtless

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Starship lands on Mars

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Constitutional Amendment

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonia Sotomayor

John Roberts

Brett Kavanaugh

Neil Gorsuch

Elena Kagan

Amy Coney Barrett

Hakeem Jeffries

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Ilhan Omar

Ritchie Torres

Thomas Massie

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Mike Lee

Dan Goldman

Randy Fine

Henry Cuellar

Shri Thanedar

Byron Donalds

Nancy Pelosi

Jared Golden

Elise Stefanik

Jimmy Donaldson (Mr.Beast) (May 7, 1998)

Taylor Swift (Dec 13, 1989)

Dua Lipa (Aug 22, 1995)

Ed Sheeran (Feb 17, 1991)

Mark Zuckerberg (May 14, 1984)

Ariana Grande (Jun 26, 1993)

Shohei Ohtani (Jul 5, 1994)

Drake (Oct 24, 1986)

Sam Bankman-Fried (Mar 6, 1992)

Lionel Messi (Jun 24, 1987)

Cristiano Ronaldo (Feb 5, 1985)

Rihanna (Feb 20, 1988)

Patrick Mahomes (Sep 17, 1995)

Travis Kelce (Oct 5, 1989)

Michael Phelps (Jun 30, 1985)

Usain Bolt (Aug 21 1986)

Beyonce (Sep 4, 1981)

Rafael Nadal (Jun 3, 1986)

Lebron James (Dec 30, 1984)

Serena Williams (Sep 26 1981)

Sam Altman (Apr 22, 1985)

Lil Wayne (Sep 27, 1982)

Elizabeth Holmes (Feb 3, 1984)

Tom Brady (Aug 3, 1977)

Emmanuel Macron (Dec 21, 1977)

Venus Williams (Jun 17, 1980)

Roger Federer (Aug 8, 1981)

Will Smith (Sep 25, 1968)

Jeff Bezos (Jan 12, 1964)

Shou Chew (Jan 1, 1983)

Britney Spears (Dec 2, 1981)

Neil Gorsuch (Aug 29, 1967)

Leonardo DiCaprio (Nov 11, 1974)

Ron Desantis (Sep 14, 1978)

Ryan Reynolds (Oct 23, 1976)

Ketanji Brown Jackson (Sep 14, 1970)

Kamala Harris (Oct 20, 1964)

Christopher Nolan (Jul 30, 1970)

Hakeem Jeffries (Aug 4, 1970)

Satya Nadella (Aug 19, 1967)

Gavin Newsom (Oct 10, 1967)

Nikki Haley (Jan 20, 1972)

Tiger Woods (Dec 30, 1975)

Larry Page (Mar 26, 1973)

Michelle Obama (Jan 17, 1964)

Amy Coney Barrett (Jan 28, 1972)

Brad Pitt (Dec 18, 1963)

Jennifer Lopez (Jul 24, 1969)

Oprah Winfrey (Jan 29, 1954)

Jensen Huang (Feb 17, 1963)

Brett Kavanaugh (Feb 12, 1965)

Eliezer Yudkowsky (Sep 11, 1979)

Erdogan (Feb 26, 1954)

JK Rowling (Jul 31, 1965)

Chuck Norris (Mar 10, 1940)

Elena Kagan (Apr 28, 1960)

Mike Pence (Jun 7, 1959)

Wayne Gretzsky (Jan 26, 1961)

Mary Barra (Dec 24, 1961)

John G. Roberts (Jan 27, 1955)

Barack Obama (Aug 4, 1961)

Snoop Dogg (Oct 20, 1971)

Xi Jinping (Jun 15, 1953)

Clarence Thomas (Jun 23, 1948)

Sonia Sotomayor (Jun 25, 1954)

Samuel Alito (Apr 1, 1950)

Elon Musk (Jun 28, 1971)

Geoffrey Hinton (Dec 6, 1947)

Kim Jong Un (Jan 8, 1984)

Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)

Bernard Arnault (Mar 5, 1949)

Mohammed Bin Salman (Aug 31, 1985)

George W Bush (Jul 6, 1946)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Oct 21, 1949)

Volodymyr Zelensky (Jan 25, 1978)

Ted Cruz (Dec 22, 1970)

Hillary Clinton (Oct 26, 1947)

Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)

Stephen King (Sep 21, 1947)

Steven Spielberg (Dec 18, 1946)

Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)

Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)

Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)

Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)

Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)

Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)

Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)

Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)

Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)

Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)

Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)

Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)

Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)

King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)

Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)

Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)

Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)

Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)

Jimmy Carter (Oct 1, 1924)

Yahya Sinwar (Oct 29 1962)

Bernie Madoff

Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler - Sinners

Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value

Omar M. Yaghi

Susumu Kitagawa

Daron Acemoglu

Demis Hassabis

Jun Ye

Peter Zoller

Gilles Brassard

Charles Henry Bennett

Robert S Langer

Olga Botner

Can Xue

Krzysztof Matyjaszewski

Elizaveta 'Monetochka' Gyrdymova

Ed Boyden

Peter Shor

David Deutsch

Chi-Huey Wong

William Jorgesen

Salman Rushdie

Charles Leonard Bennett

Jean Fréchet

Charles L. Brooks III

Haruki Murakami

Michele Parrinello

Roberto Car

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

AI

Thomas Piketty

Ohio - Brian Smith

Toledo - Jason Candle

Western Michigan - Lance Taylor

UMass - Joe Harasymiak

Buffalo - Pete Lembo

Central Michigan - Matt Drinkall

Miami (OH) - Chuck Martin

Northern Illinois - Thomas Hammock

Eastern Michigan - Chris Creighton

Akron - Joe Moorhead

Ball State - Mike Uremovich

Bowling Green - Eddie George

Clarence Thomas

Samuel Alito

Elena Kagan

Neil Gorsuch

John Roberts

Sonia Sotomayor

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Brett Kavanaugh

Susan Collins (Senate - ME): Voted to convict Trump in 2021.

John Cornyn (Senate - TX): With McConnell retiring, Cornyn is the new face of the "Establishment". Trump allies (like Texas AG Ken Paxton) have actively floated primary challenges against him.

David Valadao (House - CA): The only House Republican who voted to impeach Trump who is running for re-election in 2026.

Field (Any other Targeted Incumbent not listed): If a major new target emerges add them as a standalone option.

Thomas Massie (House - KY-04): Voted against the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"

Bill Cassidy (Senate - LA): Voted to convict Trump in 2021 and was immediately censured by his state party. He is running for re-election and will face a massive Trump-backed primary challenge.

Clarence Thomas (age 76 in 2024)

Samuel Alito (age 74 in 2024)

John Roberts (age 69 in 2024)

Leon Marchand

Summer McIntosh

Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone

Bobby Finke

Amit Elor

Katie Ledecky

Grant Holloway

Quincy Wilson

Torri Huske

Lee Kiefer

Ryan Crouser

Valerie Allman

Gabby Thomas

Rai Benjamin

Gretchen Walsh

Letsile Tebogo

Tara Davis-Woodhall

Noah Lyles

Sha'Carri Richardson

Kate Douglass

Katie Grimes

Regan Smith

Simone Biles

Suni Lee

Remco Evenepoel

Other

Mattias Skjelmose

Tadej Pogačar

Thomas Pidcock

Ben Healy

👑 Mathieu van der Poel

Matteo Jorgenson

Benoît Cosnefroy

Marc Hirschi

Tiesj Benoot