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Prediction markets for Thoughtful AI

Will WW3 happen before GTA6?

Jul 2, 10:02 AMNov 18, 11:00 PM

4.41%chance

5921326247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47894

3274

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28379

3002

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9017079

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2025

34

13

12

9

8

8

6

4

3

2

0

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

87%chance

14512749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3195

1352

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.71%chance

2412029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3374

219

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.85%chance

152530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1849

1195

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.13%chance

371404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

931

Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?

May 21, 2:42 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

23.06%chance

91022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1846

568

Will "Thoughts on the Pause AI protest" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 7, 7:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

Complex communication with a non-human animal by 2050

Jun 15, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

10645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will "Thoughts on AI 2027" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 28, 7:50 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.1%chance

495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

868

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