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Prediction markets for THR

Will a judge throw out X vs. GARM?

Aug 8, 5:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

50.46%chance

7635026

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10102

9898

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?

Jan 22, 6:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.66%chance

4720282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

24783

2497

Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

Mar 18, 12:21 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

25%chance

8618087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

1174

Will Twitter have more users than Meta Threads in December 2025?

Jul 6, 12:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82.79%chance

12411453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3622

1447

Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over three years from 2023?

Oct 15, 12:45 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

1.53%chance

418751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7453

103

Will Aliens be discovered in the next three years?

Nov 7, 5:33 AMNov 7, 6:59 AM

7%chance

277309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

957

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

54.96%chance

365319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5032

4011

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Jun 12, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.45%chance

294806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1807

554

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

192825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12162

8222

Will Trump threaten to move the 2028 Olympics out of LA?

Jun 9, 6:18 PMJul 14, 10:59 PM

43.42%chance

15911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

970

AI improves season 8 of Game of Thrones by 2030

Feb 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.52%chance

13246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

993

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