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Prediction markets for THR

Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

Mar 18, 12:21 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

30.46%chance

8920315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

956

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Jun 12, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.63%chance

327753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3480

287

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.42%chance

226797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15488

6457

Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?

Jun 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.95%chance

52267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

981

Will Trump threaten to move the 2028 Olympics out of LA?

Jun 9, 6:18 PMJul 14, 10:59 PM

49.14%chance

171485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

983

By end of 2030, will I perceive the threat from climate change as being worse than at market creation?

Mar 3, 12:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

321155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

954

Is the "Game of Thrones" theory of what happened at OpenAI broadly accurate?

Nov 24, 12:08 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.43%chance

18857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

934

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

970

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Chicago tax revenue declines three years in a row due to flight from the city.

May 25, 1:13 PMMar 1, 3:59 PM

42.22%chance

4370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1170

855

AI improves season 8 of Game of Thrones by 2030

Feb 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.52%chance

13246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

993

Will "Three Months In, Evaluating Three Rationalist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 22, 1:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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