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Prediction markets for THR

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?

Jan 22, 6:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

96.59%chance

5852328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

44357

1026

Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

Mar 18, 12:21 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

25%chance

8619788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

1174

Will Twitter have more users than Meta Threads in December 2025?

Jul 6, 12:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

92.53%chance

13016447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6749

1047

Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over three years from 2023?

Oct 15, 12:45 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

1.42%chance

429003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7703

99

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Jun 12, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.48%chance

327418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3285

304

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

52.58%chance

365551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4800

4210

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.22%chance

213184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11698

8549

Will Trump threaten to move the 2028 Olympics out of LA?

Jun 9, 6:18 PMJul 14, 10:59 PM

43.42%chance

161261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

970

AI improves season 8 of Game of Thrones by 2030

Feb 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.52%chance

13246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

993

California State Route 1 thru Big Sur open before September 2026?

Jul 15, 6:25 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Three Months In, Evaluating Three Rationalist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 22, 1:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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