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Prediction markets for THR

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.49%chance

3221616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29219

3422

Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

Mar 18, 12:21 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

35%chance

9321572

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

819

Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?

Mar 24, 1:08 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

76.01%chance

7414521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

828

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Jun 12, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.24%chance

418891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1721

581

Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?

Jun 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.95%chance

52267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

981

Will Trump threaten to move the 2028 Olympics out of LA?

Jun 9, 6:18 PMJul 14, 10:59 PM

43.85%chance

181590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

884

By end of 2030, will I perceive the threat from climate change as being worse than at market creation?

Mar 3, 12:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

321155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

954

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.73%chance

19813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

916

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will the US threaten to attack Canada before 2027?

Aug 26, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.38%chance

9403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

AI improves season 8 of Game of Thrones by 2030

Feb 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.52%chance

13246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

993

Will "Three Months In, Evaluating Three Rationalist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 22, 1:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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