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Top stories

Microsoft Warns Secret Blizzard Hijacks Russian ISPs to Spy on Moscow Embassies

Microsoft Warns Secret Blizzard Hijacks Russian ISPs to Spy on Moscow Embassies

Authors

17

3 days ago

Prediction markets for Threat Intelligence

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.18%chance

5112040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

891

Will AI wipe out cows before the year 2030?

Jul 3, 4:39 PMJan 2, 1:00 AM

2.25%chance

4810735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2965

884

Will AI writers replace all jobs for human writers by the end of 2025?

Jan 14, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.25%chance

339086

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6211

785

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.23%chance

264684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2710

623

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.68%chance

404470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

823

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.89%chance

253665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

810

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy survive 2025?

Jun 6, 10:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.94%chance

253648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2472

405

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will there be evidence of large scale data pollution operations by the end of 2025?

Aug 17, 9:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.53%chance

25694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

900

Will any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?

Apr 22, 5:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.26%chance

16500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

975

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?

May 16, 7:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

23.65%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

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