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Prediction markets for Three

Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

Mar 18, 12:21 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

25%chance

8619788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

1174

Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over three years from 2023?

Oct 15, 12:45 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

1.42%chance

429003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7703

99

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Jun 12, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.48%chance

327418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3285

304

Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 1:10 AMJan 2, 2:08 AM

71.99%chance

145133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1603

624

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.22%chance

213184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11698

8549

Will the Three Body Problem netflix series turn everyone into femboys?

May 8, 5:13 AMApr 21, 6:59 AM

52.73%chance

311709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1321

302

Will I ride an e-scooter or a bike without a helmet within the next three years?

Feb 4, 1:04 PMFeb 4, 10:59 PM

29.2%chance

91102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

642

Will the Mississippi River incur a catastrophic flood in the next three years?

Oct 2, 4:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.31%chance

14615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

898

Will unit 1 of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant restart before 2029?

Sep 20, 1:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.44%chance

9578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1317

759

Chicago tax revenue declines three years in a row due to flight from the city.

May 25, 1:13 PMMar 1, 3:59 PM

42.22%chance

4370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1170

855

China will adopt a policy where for some job positions, having at least three children is required

Aug 20, 8:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.05%chance

13330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

915

Will "Three Months In, Evaluating Three Rationalist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 22, 1:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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