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Prediction markets for Three

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.11%chance

3437585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

43079

2321

Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

Mar 18, 12:21 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

35%chance

9321572

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

819

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Jun 12, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.47%chance

418946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

600

Will "Project Hail Mary" receive more Oscar nominations than "Dune: Part Three"?

Apr 8, 3:23 PMJan 8, 4:20 PM

22.09%chance

322895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1878

532

Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 5:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97%chance

71844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2644

20

In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?

Oct 21, 2:56 AMJan 21, 2:54 AM

50.53%chance

111652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10107

9894

Will I ride an e-scooter or a bike without a helmet within the next three years?

Feb 4, 1:04 PMFeb 4, 10:59 PM

28.98%chance

111163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1565

639

Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?

May 4, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.76%chance

161012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

679

Will unit 1 of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant restart before 2029?

Sep 20, 1:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

72.49%chance

12884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1623

616

Will the Mississippi River incur a catastrophic flood in the next three years?

Oct 2, 4:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.92%chance

14688

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

961

China will adopt a policy where for some job positions, having at least three children is required

Aug 20, 8:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.62%chance

15378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

908

Will "Three Months In, Evaluating Three Rationalist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 22, 1:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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