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Prediction markets for Three

Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

Mar 18, 12:21 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

35%chance

9321572

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

819

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.48%chance

2914084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21724

4603

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Jun 12, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.73%chance

368286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2743

365

Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 1:10 AMJan 2, 2:08 AM

75.94%chance

155444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1778

563

Will "Project Hail Mary" receive more Oscar nominations than "Dune: Part Three"?

Apr 8, 3:23 PMJan 8, 4:20 PM

27.3%chance

272345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1632

613

Will I ride an e-scooter or a bike without a helmet within the next three years?

Feb 4, 1:04 PMFeb 4, 10:59 PM

28.66%chance

101158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1578

634

Humanoid robot walking around me within three years?

Apr 30, 4:08 PMApr 30, 4:07 PM

45.59%chance

19805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

915

Will the Mississippi River incur a catastrophic flood in the next three years?

Oct 2, 4:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.92%chance

14688

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

961

Will unit 1 of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant restart before 2029?

Sep 20, 1:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.95%chance

11684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1423

703

Chicago tax revenue declines three years in a row due to flight from the city.

May 25, 1:13 PMMar 1, 3:59 PM

42.22%chance

4370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1170

855

China will adopt a policy where for some job positions, having at least three children is required

Aug 20, 8:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.05%chance

13330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

915

Will "Three Months In, Evaluating Three Rationalist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 22, 1:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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