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Three Friends News

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

161478667

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Grok 5

Gemini 4

Any model announced before 2027

GPT-6

Claude 3.5 Opus

OpenAI o4

Fable/Mythos 5.5

Gemini 3.5

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

Any Claude 5 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

GPT-5.6

GLM-5.2

88

84

83

83

79

79

74

74

72

65

61

56

52

49

44

26

19

18

17

13

10

6

3

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17244365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

1297

How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?

Apr 24, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

103759

OptionProbability

Appeal or other delay into 2027

Judgment primarily for buyer (25-99%)

Judgment entirely for buyer (100%+)

Settlement to sell for < $1.6M

Judgment approximately even (+/-25%)

Settlement to sell for >= $1.6M

Judgment primarily for me (25-99%)

Judgment entirely for me (100%+)

52

14

12

9

5

3

2

2

Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?

Aug 7, 5:04 PMOct 31, 5:01 PM

37.37%chance

162923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

772

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.13%chance

431474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2360

1961

If I use one of the below domains for my app, will I be happy with the choice by the end of 2026

Feb 23, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4875

OptionProbability

podfactum.com

podatelier.com

podfabrik.com

69

56

54

Will I complete the Wind River High Route (vSkurka)?

Jul 19, 6:57 PMSep 5, 10:59 PM

75.73%chance

8513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

901

Australia vs South Africa Test Series Predictions

Jan 3, 10:27 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

12273

OptionProbability

South Africa win Series

Australia win series

Cummins is Captain

Cummins plays all the games

Rabada MoTS

Series Cancelled

Draw

65

48

41

41

34

27

24

Where will I pay state taxes in 2026?

Feb 28, 7:04 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

2262

OptionProbability

California

Other

Arizona

Nevada

New York

Pennsylvania

Texas

Washington

47

17

6

6

6

6

6

6

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