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Three Friends News

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

136380581

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Gemini 4

Any model announced before 2027

GPT-6

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Claude 3.5 Opus

Any Claude 5 model

Grok 5

OpenAI o4

Gemini 3.5

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.6

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.8

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Opus 4.7

87

86

85

84

80

80

76

73

71

65

57

56

48

46

37

27

22

21

18

13

13

13

10

9

9

5

4

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.57%chance

16940406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1882

1004

Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?

Aug 7, 5:04 PMOct 31, 5:01 PM

59.78%chance

142376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

820

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.13%chance

431474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2360

1961

If I use one of the below domains for my app, will I be happy with the choice by the end of 2026

Feb 23, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4875

OptionProbability

podfactum.com

podatelier.com

podfabrik.com

69

56

54

How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?

Apr 24, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6572

OptionProbability

Appeal or other delay into 2027

Judgment primarily for me (25-99%)

Judgment entirely for me (100%+)

Judgment approximately even (+/-25%)

Settlement to sell for >= $1.6M

Settlement to sell for < $1.6M

Judgment entirely for buyer (100%+)

Judgment primarily for buyer (25-99%)

27

21

16

12

7

6

6

6

Where will I pay state taxes in 2026?

Feb 28, 7:04 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

2262

OptionProbability

California

Other

Arizona

Nevada

New York

Pennsylvania

Texas

Washington

47

17

6

6

6

6

6

6

Australia vs South Africa Test Series Predictions

Jan 3, 10:27 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

10258

OptionProbability

South Africa win Series

Australia win series

Cummins is Captain

Cummins plays all the games

Rabada MoTS

Series Cancelled

Draw

54

48

41

41

34

27

24

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