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Prediction markets for Three Friends

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72172440

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced before 2028

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2027

GPT-6

Grok 5

Any Claude 5 model

Gemini 3

DeepSeek-V4

OpenAI o4

Claude 3.5 Opus

Any model announced before 2026

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

87

79

74

73

67

67

50

50

34

30

28

17

16

13

12

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.44%chance

15835470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1721

1121

Does the riddle provided in the description have a solution?

Jul 17, 10:43 PMJan 1, 8:37 PM

91.4%chance

3519424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3259

307

Will Donald Trump arrest his political opponents?

Dec 17, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

9212709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1410

453

Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?

Aug 7, 5:04 PMOct 31, 5:01 PM

71.3%chance

92011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1576

634

Will my friend Doodle get a girlfriend before GTA 6 Drops?

Feb 20, 2:46 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

69.2%chance

51260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.47%chance

391109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2155

2089

Will I experience crystal clear ice before 2026

Jun 20, 12:55 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62.98%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Which model's jokes are funnier? GPT-5 vs Grok-4

Aug 11, 9:02 AMAug 18, 9:59 PM

310

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