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Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

180540238

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

GPT-6.5

Any model announced before 2027

Claude 3.5 Opus

OpenAI o4

Fable/Mythos 5.5

Grok 5

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

Any Claude 5 model

grok-4

GPT-6

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Gemini 3.5

Gemini 4

Claude 4.5 Opus

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

GPT-5.6

GLM-5.2

OpenAI Astra (first model released)

90

88

88

87

85

85

84

83

82

80

79

78

69

65

47

32

25

13

10

10

9

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17445547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

1297

How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?

Apr 24, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

124401

OptionProbability

Appeal or other delay into 2027

Judgment primarily for buyer (25-99%)

Judgment entirely for buyer (100%+)

Settlement to sell for < $1.6M

Judgment approximately even (+/-25%)

Settlement to sell for >= $1.6M

Judgment primarily for me (25-99%)

Judgment entirely for me (100%+)

70

8

7

6

3

2

2

2

If I use one of the below domains for my app, will I be happy with the choice by the end of 2026

Feb 23, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51707

OptionProbability

podfactum.com

podatelier.com

podfabrik.com

83

56

54

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.13%chance

431474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2360

1961

I visit the Addis Jazz Festival 2027

Sep 30, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

833

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