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Prediction markets for Three UK

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Oct 10, 10:53 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

21.79%chance

7111237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2587

772

When will the next UK General Election take place?

Jul 7, 6:05 AMDec 10, 11:59 PM

256117

OptionProbability

Before 01/01/2029

Before 01/01/2028

Before 01/01/2027

Before 01/01/2026

65

28

8

0

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

6.58%chance

172783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2674

766

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Jul 3, 10:37 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

261330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

971

Will UK children face a social media curfew before 2029?

Jun 9, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.13%chance

7956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1823

549

Will UK job vacancies increase?

Feb 23, 8:37 AMJul 9, 7:35 AM

5584

OptionProbability

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

March 2026

52

50

50

46

0

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

6549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

Oct 12, 10:22 PMJan 2, 10:00 AM

76.25%chance

8323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

204

92

Charli XCX scores a billboard #1 single in 2026?

Nov 3, 11:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

8121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

254

163

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Taylor Swift has a Billboard #1 single in 2026?

Nov 24, 10:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

197

Will UK Trade Minister Chris Bryant or his replacement visit Taiwan before 2028?

Jan 3, 3:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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