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Prediction markets for Three UK

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Oct 10, 10:53 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.92%chance

7211589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2835

709

When will the next UK General Election take place?

Jul 7, 6:05 AMDec 10, 11:59 PM

286737

OptionProbability

Before 01/01/2029

Before 01/01/2028

Before 01/01/2027

Before 01/01/2026

30

12

6

0

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

6.57%chance

192787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2678

765

Will UK children face a social media curfew before 2029?

Jun 9, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.3%chance

101832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

795

Will UK job vacancies increase?

Feb 23, 8:37 AMJul 9, 7:35 AM

61743

OptionProbability

August 2026

July 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

50

28

0

0

0

0

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Jul 3, 10:37 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

261330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

971

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

8563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Charli XCX scores a billboard #1 single in 2026?

Nov 3, 11:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.64%chance

10404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

145

Taylor Swift has a Billboard #1 single in 2026?

Nov 24, 10:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.18%chance

6400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

573

67

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

Oct 12, 10:22 PMJan 2, 10:00 AM

76.25%chance

8323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

204

92

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

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