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Prediction markets for Three UK

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Oct 10, 10:53 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

33.07%chance

589366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1923

1018

Will Oasis break up before the end of their 2025 live tour?

Oct 15, 4:26 PMNov 9, 4:59 AM

18.71%chance

175735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2085

480

When will the next UK General Election take place?

Jul 7, 6:05 AMDec 10, 11:59 PM

154796

OptionProbability

Before 01/01/2029

Before 01/01/2028

Before 01/01/2027

Before 01/01/2026

55

17

2

1

Will the UK (excluding Northern Ireland) experience major riots in 2025, similar to 2024? (V2)

Jun 11, 9:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

124039

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1683

594

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Jul 3, 10:37 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

261330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

971

Will UK children face a social media curfew before 2029?

Jun 9, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.48%chance

6595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1585

631

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

15.12%chance

12483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

920

Will o3.5 be released before 2026?

Dec 21, 9:30 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

3.77%chance

6465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

505

20

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

Oct 12, 10:22 PMJan 2, 10:00 AM

76.25%chance

8323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

204

92

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