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Prediction markets for Three UK

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Oct 10, 10:53 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.92%chance

7211589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2835

709

Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?

Aug 6, 8:03 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

24.05%chance

587915

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5483

2860

Will Andrew Tate be extradited by the end of the year?

Jul 19, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.92%chance

215601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2216

451

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

5.89%chance

223118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2939

748

Will UK children face a social media curfew before 2029?

Jun 9, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.3%chance

101832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

795

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Jul 3, 10:37 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

261330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

971

Will Andrew Tate be extradited by the end of the year?

Jul 19, 8:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

181077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Charli XCX scores a billboard #1 single in 2026?

Nov 3, 11:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.77%chance

14587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

433

104

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

8563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

Oct 12, 10:22 PMJan 2, 10:00 AM

76.25%chance

8323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

204

92

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will UK job vacancies increase?

Sep 15, 9:24 PMJan 31, 10:22 PM

364

OptionProbability

November 2026

December 2026

January 2027

October 2026

43

43

43

11

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