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Prediction markets for Threshold Ventures

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2045?

Oct 20, 11:04 AMJan 5, 10:59 PM

20.1%chance

405583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

947

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.98%chance

395522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

941

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

44.42%chance

324417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

986

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?

Dec 24, 12:47 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

58.64%chance

393749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

850

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2040?

Oct 19, 3:37 PMJan 15, 10:59 PM

13.48%chance

383602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

908

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2065?

Dec 18, 12:22 PMJan 8, 10:59 PM

50.44%chance

342591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

784

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055?

Dec 29, 1:15 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

74.94%chance

252282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

157

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2050?

Dec 15, 1:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

26.57%chance

312250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

945

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2060?

Dec 17, 11:09 AMFeb 5, 10:59 PM

44.1%chance

291968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1184

633

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2055?

Dec 16, 3:54 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.96%chance

341888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

796

Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?

Feb 3, 7:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

68.25%chance

241825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

924

Wagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)

Jan 12, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.89%chance

7769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1173

853

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