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Prediction markets for Thrive

Sam Bankman-Fried will be put into solitary confinement by end 2026

Oct 17, 9:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.58%chance

212974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2882

725

Will a precolonial city be found in the Amazon rainforest that is larger than any city found there thus far?

Sep 15, 7:14 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.24%chance

212851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2191

456

Which U.S. late-night show host will still be hosting their show by Dec 2028, given recent firings and suspensions.

Sep 19, 8:38 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

15539

OptionProbability

John Oliver

Jimmy Kimmel

Jimmy Fallon

Seth Meyers

Bill Maher

Stephen Colbert

93

75

64

58

52

18

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will the KMT abandon the 1992 Consensus?

Jan 14, 4:12 AMJan 31, 3:59 PM

42.14%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

79

63

What is the best way to organize a radical retirement polycule collective to ensure mutual support through the troubles?

Oct 9, 2:46 PM

00

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