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Prediction markets for Thrive

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

922

Sam Bankman-Fried will be put into solitary confinement by end 2026

Oct 17, 9:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.74%chance

222978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2826

729

Which U.S. late-night show host will still be hosting their show by Dec 2028, given recent firings and suspensions.

Sep 19, 8:38 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

15544

OptionProbability

John Oliver

Jimmy Kimmel

Jimmy Fallon

Seth Meyers

Bill Maher

Stephen Colbert

93

71

64

58

52

18

Which acquired improv theatre will be dumped first?

Feb 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1140

OptionProbability

iO

Second City

UCB

None, these will be the first-ever private equity acquisitions to thrive

32

32

32

3

Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

Apr 1, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.58%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will the KMT abandon the 1992 Consensus?

Jan 14, 4:12 AMJan 31, 3:59 PM

42.14%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

79

63

Is José Luis Ricón Fernández de la Puente funny?

Aug 6, 8:38 PM

20

What is the best way to organize a radical retirement polycule collective to ensure mutual support through the troubles?

Oct 9, 2:46 PM

00

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