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Prediction markets for TIA

Will Tianwen-3 launch before 2030?

Sep 23, 12:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

189844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1222

116

Will Google release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?

Jan 18, 9:47 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.53%chance

449427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4179

591

Will OpenAI release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?

Jan 18, 9:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

7.24%chance

131679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2612

737

Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission launch before 2026?

Sep 23, 12:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

99%chance

2818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

890

9

Which target will Tianwen-5 mission focus on?

Oct 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

290

OptionProbability

Jupiter

Neptune

Saturn

Uranus

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

34

28

14

11

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will Tianwen-3 successfully land on Mars?

Sep 23, 12:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.87%chance

475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

187

99

Will China's Tianwen-4 Jupiter mission launch before 2032?

Sep 27, 3:13 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

69.51%chance

370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

151

66

Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with a comet?

Sep 23, 5:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.72%chance

465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

104

Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?

Sep 23, 12:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.83%chance

560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

107

Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with an asteroid?

Sep 23, 12:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.64%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

152

86

Which woman will win the 2025 CrossFit Games?

Jun 30, 8:21 PMAug 4, 10:59 PM

212

OptionProbability

Tia Toomey

Danielle Brandon

Arielle Loewen

Alexis Raptis

Aimee Cringle

Other

34

13

13

13

13

13

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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