TIA News

Will Tianwen-3 launch before 2030?

Sep 23, 12:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

189844

OptionVotes

YES

1222

116

Which short story will win a Hugo award in 2026?

Apr 21, 11:25 PMAug 30, 11:00 PM

2284

OptionProbability

“Wire Mother” - Isabel J. Kim (Clarkesworld, Issue 229)

“10 Visions of the Future; or, Self-Care for the End of Days” - Samantha Mills (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 63)

“Laser Eyes Ain’t Everything” - Effie Seiberg (Diabolical Plots, May 16, 2025)

“Six People to Revise You” - J.R. Dawson (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 62)

“In My Country” - Thomas Ha (Clarkesworld, Issue 223)

“Missing Helen” - Tia Tashiro (Clarkesworld, Issue 226)

Will a portrait of Xi Jinping hang on the Tiananmen gatehouse before his death?

Sep 3, 7:17 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

25%chance

7188

OptionVotes

YES

173

Tianwen-4 Jupiter Mission Mega Market

Oct 15, 3:46 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

5125

OptionProbability

Tianwen-4 successfully enters Jupiter orbit

Tianwen-4 launches with a secondary Uranus flyby probe

Tianwen-4 launches with a Callisto impacter

Juice and Europa Clipper are both still active when Tianwen-4 arrives at Jupiter

Tianwen-4 successfully enters Callisto orbit

Tianwen-4 launches before 2030

Tianwen-4 launches after 2030 and before 2035

Tianwen-4 launches with a Callisto lander

Tianwen-4 launches in 2030

Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?

Sep 23, 12:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35%chance

6110

OptionVotes

YES

138

Which target will Tianwen-5 mission focus on?

Oct 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

290

OptionProbability

Jupiter

Neptune

Saturn

Uranus

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

Will the tiananmen square deaths still be censored in China by 2045?

Jun 22, 7:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48%chance

784

OptionVotes

YES

104

Will Tianwen-3 successfully land on Mars?

Sep 23, 12:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.87%chance

475

OptionVotes

YES

187

Will China's Tianwen-4 Jupiter mission launch before 2032?

Sep 27, 3:13 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

69.51%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

151

Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with a comet?

Sep 23, 5:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.72%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

179

104

Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with an asteroid?

Sep 23, 12:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.64%chance

360

OptionVotes

YES

152

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

TIA News

Prediction markets for TIA

Prediction markets for TIA

Prediction markets for TIA

Will Tianwen-3 launch before 2030?

Which short story will win a Hugo award in 2026?

Will a portrait of Xi Jinping hang on the Tiananmen gatehouse before his death?

Tianwen-4 Jupiter Mission Mega Market

Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?

Which target will Tianwen-5 mission focus on?

Will the tiananmen square deaths still be censored in China by 2045?

Will Tianwen-3 successfully land on Mars?

Will China's Tianwen-4 Jupiter mission launch before 2032?

Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with a comet?

Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with an asteroid?

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

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