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Prediction markets for TIA

Will Tianwen-3 launch before 2030?

Sep 23, 12:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

189844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1222

116

Will Google release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?

Jan 18, 9:47 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.46%chance

459477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4229

589

Will OpenAI release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?

Jan 18, 9:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

2.33%chance

145782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6610

570

Will a portrait of Xi Jinping hang on the Tiananmen gatehouse before his death?

Sep 3, 7:17 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

22.44%chance

6184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

54

Tianwen-4 Jupiter Mission Mega Market

Oct 15, 3:46 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

5125

OptionProbability

Tianwen-4 successfully enters Jupiter orbit

Tianwen-4 launches with a secondary Uranus flyby probe

Tianwen-4 launches with a Callisto impacter

Juice and Europa Clipper are both still active when Tianwen-4 arrives at Jupiter

Tianwen-4 successfully enters Callisto orbit

Tianwen-4 launches before 2030

Tianwen-4 launches after 2030 and before 2035

Tianwen-4 launches with a Callisto lander

Tianwen-4 launches in 2030

78

73

68

68

58

57

38

22

15

Which target will Tianwen-5 mission focus on?

Oct 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

290

OptionProbability

Jupiter

Neptune

Saturn

Uranus

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

34

28

14

11

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will the tiananmen square deaths still be censored in China by 2045?

Jun 22, 7:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48%chance

784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will Tianwen-3 successfully land on Mars?

Sep 23, 12:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.87%chance

475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

187

99

Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with a comet?

Sep 23, 5:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.72%chance

465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

104

Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with an asteroid?

Sep 23, 12:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.64%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

152

86

Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?

Sep 23, 12:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.83%chance

560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

107

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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