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Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

Fold a paper airplane

Make correct Truchet tiles

Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

Kill everyone - Liron

Reuse a booster by end of 2025/06 June 2025

Reuse a booster by end of 2025/09 September 2025

Reuse a booster by end of 2025/12 December 2025

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/07 i.e. Jul 2026

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027

09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2027/06 i.e. Jun 2027

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2028/03 i.e. Mar 2028

10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2027/09 i.e. Sep 2027

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027

05 Recover starship by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2028/03 i.e. Mar 2028

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/12 i.e. Dec 2027

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/11 i.e. Nov 2026

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/12 i.e. Dec 2027

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/11 i.e. Nov 2026

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/10 i.e. Oct 2026

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/09 i.e. Sep 2027

09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2027/06 i.e. Jun 2027

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/09 i.e.Sep 2027

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2027/09 i.e. Sep 2027

05 Recover starship by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2027/06 i.e. June 2027

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/10 i.e. Oct 2026

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/06 i.e.June 2027

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/06 i.e. Jun 2027

10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/10 i.e. Oct 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027

09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/07 i.e. July 2026

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2026/07 i.e. Jul 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/07 i.e. Jul 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/07 i.e. Jul 2026

Reach orbit by end of 2024

Reach orbit by end of January 2025

Reach orbit by end of February 2025

Reach orbit by end of 2025/03 March 2025

Reach orbit by end of 2025/04 April 2025

Reach orbit by end of 2025/05 May 2025

Deploy satellites by end of 2024

Deploy satellites by end of January 2025

Deploy satellites by end of February 2025

Deploy satellites by end of 2025/3 March 2025

Deploy satellites by end of 2025/4 April 2025

Deploy satellites by end of 2025/5 May 2025

Recover starship by end of 2025/3 March 2025

Recover starship by end of 2025/4 April 2025

Recover starship by end of 2025/5 May 2025

Recover starship by end of 2025/06 June 2025

Recover starship by end of 2025/07 July 2025

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

Reach orbit by end of 2025/06 i.e. June 2025

Deploy satellites by end of 2025/06 i.e. June 2025

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026

Deploy satellites by end of 2025/07 i.e. July 2025

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/08 i.e. Aug 2025

Reach orbit by end of 2025/07 i.e. July 2025

01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/08 i.e. Aug 2025

05 Recover starship by end of 2025/08 i.e. August 2025

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

05 Recover starship by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025

01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025

05 Recover starship by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/11 i.e. Nov 2025

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

05 Recover starship by end of 2025/11 i.e. Nov 2025

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026

06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/11 i.e.Nov 2025

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/01 i.e.Jan 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026

09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026

09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/04 i.e. April 2026

09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026

01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026

02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026

04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

05 Recover starship by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026

YES

Apple gets subjected to financial penalties

Opening Up of NFC and Other Hardware Features - Apple is required to provide third-party developers access to hardware features currently restricted, such as the NFC chip used for tap-to-pay transactions.

IApple gets mandated to implement interoperability measures for messaging and smartwatch functionalities

The ruling forces Apple to allow developers to use their payment systems within their apps, bypassing Apple's in-app purchase system and the associated fees.

The court sets clear deadlines for when Apple must implement these changes, such as within 90 days of the ruling, providing a clear timeline for verification.

The court orders Apple to revise Apple's App Store guidelines to allow for more competition.

Establishment of a mechanism for ongoing oversight of Apple's compliance with the lawsuit's rulings.

Apple is compelled to allow developers more freedom in presentation and monetization of apps, including enabling different app discovery methods (ex : use of icons or tiles for mini programs, categorizing them, or using virtual currencies).

Mandatory Allowance of Third-Party App Stores and Sideloading

The court finds Apple guilty of monopolizing or attempting to monopolize the performance smartphone market and/or the broader smartphone market in the United States in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.

The court defines specific permissible actions for super apps and cloud gaming services on iOS, like not requiring each game or service within a super app to be submitted to the App Store individually.

If state antitrust laws are violated, Apple could be fined a specific dollar amount per incident of anticompetitive conduct, as defined by state statutes. (Conditional market)

The court requires Apple to permit cloud gaming services on its devices

The lawsuit leads to a decision that deems Apple's 30% commission rate as excessive.

The court may issue injunctions to prohibit Apple from continuing the specific practices that are identified as anticompetitive, such as using control over app distribution and private APIs to undermine competition.

The court mandates a specific maximum percentage for App Store commissions, such as reducing the current 30% fee to a lower figure, like 15% or 10%.

The court orders Apple to apply its rules and guidelines fairly across all apps and not enforce them selectively to benefit its services or harm competitors.

Apple gets ordered to give restitution to developers or consumers who have been adversely affected by its policies.

The court could require a measurable increase in the number of apps or services in previously restricted categories, such as digital wallets or cloud gaming, available on iOS within a certain period post-ruling.

Ice clogged the flap root pipe and an overpressure event caused it to rupture

Ice clogged the flap root pipe and trapped residual propellant expanding rapidly from reentry warming caused it to rupture

Too much oxygen and methane mixing in an enclosed space and igniting. Clogged pipes and or solid lumps of oxygen or methane being involved in causing those excessive quantities

A loose heat shield tile struck the outer flap area

NO

Protein Synthesis (e.g. DNA origami, RNA tiles)

Other

Additive Photolithography (e.g. 1 or 2-photon polymerization)

Vapor Deposition (e.g. CVD, PVD, ...)

Subtractive Photolithography (e.g. EUV photoresist)

Scanning Probe Microscopy (e.g. AFM/STM vertical atom manipulation)

Peptidomimetic Macrocycles (e.g. spiroligomer-based membranes)

YES

NO

NO

YES