OptionProbability
Reuse a booster by end of 2025/06 June 2025
Reuse a booster by end of 2025/09 September 2025
Reuse a booster by end of 2025/12 December 2025
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/07 i.e. Jul 2026
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/06 i.e. Jun 2027
09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/09 i.e.Sep 2027
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026
10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/06 i.e.June 2027
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026
09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026
10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026
09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/07 i.e. Jul 2026
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026
09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/04 i.e. April 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026
09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026
Reach orbit by end of 2024
Reach orbit by end of January 2025
Reach orbit by end of February 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/03 March 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/04 April 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/05 May 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2024
Deploy satellites by end of January 2025
Deploy satellites by end of February 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/3 March 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/4 April 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/5 May 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/3 March 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/4 April 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/5 May 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/06 June 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/07 July 2025
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/06 i.e. June 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/06 i.e. June 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/07 i.e. July 2025
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/08 i.e. Aug 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/07 i.e. July 2025
01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/08 i.e. Aug 2025
05 Recover starship by end of 2025/08 i.e. August 2025
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025
01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025
05 Recover starship by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025
01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025
05 Recover starship by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/11 i.e. Nov 2025
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
05 Recover starship by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
05 Recover starship by end of 2025/11 i.e. Nov 2025
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/11 i.e.Nov 2025
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/01 i.e.Jan 2026
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026
100
100
100
90
87
82
76
76
73
66
59
55
49
47
46
45
43
43
41
38
33
31
29
24
23
22
22
21
18
17
17
16
15
15
11
10
10
10
8
6
4
4
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year
Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)
Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time
Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human
Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)
Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes
Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)
Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated
Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)
Solve novel cryptic crossword clues
Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)
Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time
Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)
Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)
Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.
Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user
Make correct Truchet tiles
1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human
Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools
Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)
Fold a paper airplane
Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human
Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".
Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.
Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public
Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)
teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus
Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson
Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance
Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder
Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed
Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission
independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year
Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman
Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)
voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold
Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved
Faster than light travel
Kill everyone - Liron
90
88
86
82
80
80
76
74
73
72
72
71
67
66
63
62
60
56
50
46
46
45
45
44
36
31
30
25
23
18
16
12
11
9
5
5
4
3
2
OptionProbability
Apple gets subjected to financial penalties
Opening Up of NFC and Other Hardware Features - Apple is required to provide third-party developers access to hardware features currently restricted, such as the NFC chip used for tap-to-pay transactions.
IApple gets mandated to implement interoperability measures for messaging and smartwatch functionalities
The ruling forces Apple to allow developers to use their payment systems within their apps, bypassing Apple's in-app purchase system and the associated fees.
The court sets clear deadlines for when Apple must implement these changes, such as within 90 days of the ruling, providing a clear timeline for verification.
The court orders Apple to revise Apple's App Store guidelines to allow for more competition.
Establishment of a mechanism for ongoing oversight of Apple's compliance with the lawsuit's rulings.
Apple is compelled to allow developers more freedom in presentation and monetization of apps, including enabling different app discovery methods (ex : use of icons or tiles for mini programs, categorizing them, or using virtual currencies).
Mandatory Allowance of Third-Party App Stores and Sideloading
The court finds Apple guilty of monopolizing or attempting to monopolize the performance smartphone market and/or the broader smartphone market in the United States in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.
The court defines specific permissible actions for super apps and cloud gaming services on iOS, like not requiring each game or service within a super app to be submitted to the App Store individually.
If state antitrust laws are violated, Apple could be fined a specific dollar amount per incident of anticompetitive conduct, as defined by state statutes. (Conditional market)
The court requires Apple to permit cloud gaming services on its devices
The lawsuit leads to a decision that deems Apple's 30% commission rate as excessive.
The court may issue injunctions to prohibit Apple from continuing the specific practices that are identified as anticompetitive, such as using control over app distribution and private APIs to undermine competition.
The court mandates a specific maximum percentage for App Store commissions, such as reducing the current 30% fee to a lower figure, like 15% or 10%.
The court orders Apple to apply its rules and guidelines fairly across all apps and not enforce them selectively to benefit its services or harm competitors.
Apple gets ordered to give restitution to developers or consumers who have been adversely affected by its policies.
The court could require a measurable increase in the number of apps or services in previously restricted categories, such as digital wallets or cloud gaming, available on iOS within a certain period post-ruling.
Compulsory API Access: Apple gets ordered to provide third-party developers with access to the same APIs and functionalities that its own apps use, which could be tracked by a compliance monitor appointed by the court.
80
66
66
66
65
62
55
55
55
52
48
48
47
47
43
40
36
36
33
32
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1073
649
OptionProbability
Protein Synthesis (e.g. DNA origami, RNA tiles)
Other
Additive Photolithography (e.g. 1 or 2-photon polymerization)
Vapor Deposition (e.g. CVD, PVD, ...)
Subtractive Photolithography (e.g. EUV photoresist)
Scanning Probe Microscopy (e.g. AFM/STM vertical atom manipulation)
Peptidomimetic Macrocycles (e.g. spiroligomer-based membranes)
Focused Ion Beam (e.g. sputtering or metal deposition)
45
14
9
9
8
6
5
4
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1012
960
OptionProbability
Ice clogged the flap root pipe and trapped residual propellant expanding rapidly from reentry warming caused it to rupture
Ice clogged the flap root pipe and an overpressure event caused it to rupture
Too much oxygen and methane mixing in an enclosed space and igniting. Clogged pipes and or solid lumps of oxygen or methane being involved in causing those excessive quantities
A loose heat shield tile struck the outer flap area
A Starlink simulator struck the outer flap area
52
51
50
34
13
OptionVotes
NO
YES
74
66
OptionProbability
The door holder at the pickle all court, broken 2 months already, will be fixed by May 13?
The Starbucks door in Hillsdale mall, fixed by May 7th?
Broken tile in starbucks, Hillsdale Mall, fixed by May 12?
This insanely demolished little red car near Hillsdale High school will be gone by March 30 (it's been there for a week already)
This strangely flashing AT&T sign, by May 17 2024?
Will this yellow truck which has a wheel lock on it, on El Camino Real, either be gone or have the wheel lock removed, by June 1 2024?
100
71
63
50
50
50
OptionVotes
YES
NO
96
53
OptionVotes
NO
YES
90
56
