OptionVotes
NO
YES
1237
809
OptionProbability
Trump is incumbent president
An incumbent senator loses general election
US House Speaker elected on first ballot
Hakeem Jeffries becomes house speaker
Zach Lahn wins 2026 Iowa governor election
Democrats win back the house majority
Democrats win house general ballot by at least 7 percentage points
Chuck Schumer becomes senate majority leader
Democrats win both chamber of congress
The eventual 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee is a winner in an election in the 2026 midterms
An Incumbent governor loses general election
2026 midterms elections gets tilted in GOP ruling party's favor
Democratic house victory gets stolen and tilted to GOP ruling favor
97
75
74
68
50
46
43
35
34
5
332
30
342
155
100
