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Prediction markets for TIM

If Harris loses, will Tim Walz be the 2028 presidential nominee?

Jul 30, 2:51 AMJul 6, 6:59 AM

4.84%chance

5211402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4432

226

Will Tim Walz run for President in 2028?

Nov 9, 10:07 AMNov 17, 5:59 AM

43.52%chance

405325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

878

Will Tim Walz be party nominee for president in 2032?

Aug 8, 7:17 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

11.27%chance

192317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2805

356

Will Elon Musk challenges Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, OR Jensen Huang to a fight before end of 2025?

Apr 1, 12:13 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

5.87%chance

231932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2787

727

Will Tim Walz be a candidate for president in the 2032 primaries?

Aug 8, 7:28 PMNov 16, 7:59 AM

14.98%chance

91835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2383

420

What government positions will Tim Scott hold for any length of time in the rest of his life?

Apr 22, 5:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

121099

OptionProbability

Cabinet Secretary

Ambassador

Governor

Representative

Attorney General

Chief of Staff

Leader (majority or minority)

Mayor

Vice President

Supreme Court Justice

President

47

31

30

15

15

13

13

10

10

6

4

Will Tim Cook retire by 2030

Oct 19, 4:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82.94%chance

15410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

951

Will Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

12410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

943

Will Tim Cook step down as Apple CEO in 2026?

Nov 25, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6348

OptionProbability

Yes, in Second Half (Jul–Dec)

No, Not in 2026

Yes, in First Half (Jan–Jun)

Other

48

40

12

1

Will Tim Sweeney leave his position as CEO at Epic Games for any reason before 2030?

Jun 21, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.25%chance

6224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

368

266

[Add options] What will be true of the next appointed director-general of the BBC after Tim Davie's resignation?

Nov 10, 9:06 AMDec 10, 11:59 PM

447

OptionProbability

Manifold will approve of them in a poll

Member of the Board as of 9 November 2025

Member of the Executive Committee as of 9 November 2025

Cis man

59

50

50

45

Will Tim Pool move out of the United States by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 5:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.85%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

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