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Times and Star News

When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?

Jun 6, 5:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7543865

OptionProbability

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2024-08-01

Before 2024-09-01

Before 2024-10-01

Before 2024-11-01

Before 2024-12-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-02-01

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

87

75

58

11

5

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?

Oct 16, 3:48 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

4%chance

1924377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4899

204

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.76%chance

5423010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2116

592

Will Starliner have crew on it next time it's launched to orbit?

Jun 25, 12:17 AMJul 1, 9:59 PM

2.44%chance

2816823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6319

158

When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?

Mar 19, 10:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

189457

OptionProbability

2027

2026 Jul-Dec

2028

2029 or later or never

2026 Jan-Jun

2025 May-Aug

2025 Sep-Dec

45

31

11

7

4

1

1

Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]

Nov 22, 5:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

225911

OptionProbability

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

60

70

100

120

200

100

100

99

99

98

94

88

81

79

78

73

71

60

53

37

In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?

Sep 16, 3:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

145242

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2028

2031

This will not have happened before the end of 2035.

2032

2027

2033

2034

2035

2026

2024

2025

15

15

13

11

10

8

7

7

6

6

2

1

1

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

Jan 5, 11:05 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

68.93%chance

291600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

721

Will Starship launch at least 24 times in 24 hours before the end of 2035?

Aug 24, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.32%chance

91268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

44

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

16529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

778

On May 1st 2027 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jul 10, 12:06 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

72.52%chance

5209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

162

62

Will Starship launch one thousand times by 2040?

May 8, 3:52 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

55.66%chance

8152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

75

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