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Prediction markets for Times and Star

When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?

Jun 6, 5:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8455149

OptionProbability

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-10-01

Before 2027-07-01

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2024-08-01

Before 2024-09-01

Before 2024-10-01

Before 2024-11-01

Before 2024-12-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-02-01

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-11-01

95

92

89

86

57

39

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52%chance

7344610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1320

1096

Will Starliner have crew on it next time it's launched to orbit?

Jun 25, 12:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

0.95%chance

2920277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10223

98

When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?

Mar 19, 10:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2214475

OptionProbability

2026 Jul-Dec

2027

2025 May-Aug

2025 Sep-Dec

2026 Jan-Jun

2028

2029 or later or never

93

4

1

1

1

1

1

In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?

Sep 16, 3:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

156465

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2028

This will not have happened before the end of 2035.

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2027

2024

2025

2026

18

17

13

12

11

7

6

5

5

4

1

1

1

Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]

Nov 22, 5:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

246046

OptionProbability

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

60

70

120

200

100

100

100

99

99

98

94

88

81

79

78

73

71

71

62

60

Will Starship land on legs on Earth the first time it's recovered from orbit?

Mar 19, 8:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1%chance

144918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3085

79

What year will Starship launch at least as many times as Falcon 9?

Jun 26, 1:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

102994

OptionProbability

2028

2029

Other

2027

2026

47

26

19

7

1

On May 1st 2028 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jul 23, 6:43 PMMay 1, 11:59 PM

2.11%chance

172028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

682

15

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

12.35%chance

171930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2177

709

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

Jan 5, 11:05 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

68.93%chance

291600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

721

Will Starship launch at least 24 times in 24 hours before the end of 2035?

Aug 24, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

101278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

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