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Prediction markets for Times and Star

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39%chance

5322554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

813

Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?

Oct 16, 3:48 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

2.4%chance

1915149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6374

157

Will Starliner have crew on it next time it's launched to orbit?

Jun 25, 12:17 AMJul 1, 9:59 PM

1.47%chance

2814861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8182

122

When will Starship successfully land for the first time?

Mar 18, 9:27 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

268397

OptionProbability

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-10-01

Before 2027-07-01

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2026-01-01

96

91

86

82

77

69

21

1

0

0

0

In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?

Sep 16, 3:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

145014

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2028

2031

This will not have happened before the end of 2035.

2032

2027

2033

2034

2035

2026

2024

2025

14

14

12

12

10

8

7

7

6

6

2

1

1

Will Starship land on legs on Earth the first time it's recovered from orbit?

Mar 19, 8:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1%chance

144918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3085

79

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

Jan 5, 11:05 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

68.93%chance

291600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

721

Will Starship launch at least 24 times in 24 hours before the end of 2035?

Aug 24, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.32%chance

91268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

44

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

16529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

778

By the start of the 2031 NFL season, what will be the most amount of unique "Championship Belts" at one time?

May 15, 1:33 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2370

OptionProbability

4

5

Other

3

39

39

21

1

On May 1st 2027 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jul 10, 12:06 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

72.52%chance

5209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

162

62

Will Starship launch one thousand times by 2040?

May 8, 3:52 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

55.66%chance

8152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

75

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