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Prediction markets for Times and Star

When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?

Jun 6, 5:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7947309

OptionProbability

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-10-01

Before 2027-07-01

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2024-08-01

Before 2024-09-01

Before 2024-10-01

Before 2024-11-01

Before 2024-12-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-02-01

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-06-01

90

88

83

69

49

22

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.59%chance

6524407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

992

Will Starliner have crew on it next time it's launched to orbit?

Jun 25, 12:17 AMJul 1, 9:59 PM

2.31%chance

2816828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6504

154

When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?

Mar 19, 10:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1810208

OptionProbability

2027

2026 Jul-Dec

2028

2029 or later or never

2025 May-Aug

2025 Sep-Dec

2026 Jan-Jun

46

32

11

7

1

1

1

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

Jan 5, 11:05 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

68.93%chance

291600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

721

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

16529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

778

How often will Starship have launched by the time of Falcon 9's retirement?

Sep 11, 11:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.82%chance

14442

OptionProbability

NO

YES

402

117

By the start of the 2031 NFL season, what will be the most amount of unique "Championship Belts" at one time?

May 15, 1:33 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2370

OptionProbability

4

5

Other

3

39

39

21

1

On May 1st 2027 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jul 10, 12:06 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

74%chance

7220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

59

Will Starship launch one thousand times by 2040?

May 8, 3:52 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.56%chance

11188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

63

Is Roblox YouTuber VanilBean will first time play brawl stars?

Jun 22, 5:58 PMJun 29, 5:57 PM

78.47%chance

4184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

191

52

Blue Stars Brass placing Top 6 for the first time since the 70’s

Jun 25, 3:15 PMAug 8, 11:59 PM

67%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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